It took a bombshell resignation before then-Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe heard anything nice from South Korea.
The rare praise came after years of diplomatic rows and testy confrontations between Abe and South Korean President Moon Jae-in, and only after the prime minister late last month announced that he was stepping down after eight years in office because of ill health.
With Abe and Moon in charge, the relationship between the key US allies sank to new lows, with grievances over wartime history spilling over into trade and military issues.
Illustration: Mountain People
Japan’s political shake-up could be an opportunity for South Korea, which sees Abe’s departure as a chance to clear things up between the rivals.
South Korean officials during a recent National Security Council meeting vowed to “advance stalled negotiations on pending issues” once a new Japanese leader is in place.
Then-Japanese chief cabinet secretary Yoshihide Suga, Abe’s right-hand man, won Japan’s governing party leadership vote on Monday, virtually guaranteeing that parliament would choose him as the next prime minister [Editor’s note: Suga was elected on Wednesday.]
Suga has also hinted at improving ties with South Korea.
“China and South Korea are neighbors, and even though there are difficult problems between us, I plan to pursue diplomacy that can allow us to always communicate and develop strategic relations with them, rather than choosing one or the other,” Suga said.
Good relations are crucial to both Japan and South Korea.
Despite political conflicts, they remain closely connected economically and face similar challenges. Those include North Korea’s growing nuclear arsenal and a rising authoritarian superpower in China.
They also share long-term uncertainties about their alliances with a less-engaging US, a shift highlighted by US President Donald Trump’s “America first” approach and his complaints about the costs of stationing about 80,000 US troops in South Korea and Japan.
“Patching up differences with Tokyo would improve alliance coordination with the United States, help manage regional uncertainties concerning China and provide Seoul leverage in dealing with North Korea,” said Leif-Eric Easley, an international studies associate professor at Ewha Womans University in Seoul.
However, what remains unclear is whether Abe’s exit will prove to be a diplomatic turning point. Mutual resentment runs deep and goes beyond individual politicians.
To South Koreans, Abe was less likable than even North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, according to a Gallup Korea poll in November last year.
Abe was often seen in South Korea as a right-wing nationalist intent on whitewashing Japanese colonialism and atrocities on the Korean Peninsula during World War II.
However, placing the blame for bad relations entirely on Abe overlooks the broad public support he won at home for a tough policy toward South Korea.
There is a widespread view in Japan that South Korea is violating international norms by repeatedly revisiting wartime issues that were supposed to have been settled, said Choi Eun-mi, a Japan expert at South Korea’s Asan Institute for Policy Studies.
“Abe’s resignation does offer a window for improved relations, but it’s unrealistic to expect significant changes,” Choi said.
Stalled talks between the countries’ leaders might be resumed in the coming month, including at a possible three-way summit with China that South Korea hopes to host in November.
However, it will likely take longer for Seoul and Tokyo to “rediscover their importance to each other” beyond their interdependence in security and cooperation matters with Washington, Choi said.
South Korea and Japan have long differed over history, but previous political tensions were softened by vibrant trade, and exchanges of pop culture and tourism.
That was not the case last year when Japan’s move to place export controls on chemicals vital to South Korea’s semiconductor industry sparked an outpouring of national anger in South Korea and sweeping boycotts of Japanese products.
Moon accused Abe’s government of weaponizing trade to retaliate against South Korean Supreme Court rulings in 2018 that ordered Japanese companies to offer reparations to aging Korean plaintiffs who had been forced into wartime slave labor.
Seoul later threatened to terminate a military intelligence-sharing agreement with Tokyo, a major symbol of their trilateral security cooperation with Washington.
It eventually backed off after being pressured by the Trump administration, which until then seemed content to let its allies escalate their feud in public.
South Korea and Japan’s strained relation has hurt their ability to deal with the unpredictable foreign policy of the US president, who has questioned the value of US alliances while raising tensions with China, a major trading partner for both, said Park Won-gon, an international relations professor at South Korea’s Handong University.
“Ideally, strong coordination between South Korea and Japan would help steer the Trump administration into pursuing its regional strategies within international norms and rules,” Park said.
South Korea will likely need to close the gap between its domestic court rulings and existing bilateral agreements to improve ties with Japan.
Many Japanese see the South Korean forced labor rulings as a challenge to a 1965 treaty between the nations that was accompanied by Japanese payments to restore diplomatic ties. Tokyo insists that all compensation matters were settled then.
There is also frustration over Moon’s 2017 decision to walk back a 2015 agreement negotiated under South Korea’s previous government that attempted to “irreversibly” resolve a decades-long impasse over Korean women forced into sexual slavery by Japan’s wartime military.
The deal, which had Japan give US$9 million to a foundation to help the victims, sparked large protests in South Korea, where many accused their government of settling for far too little after failing to consult victims.
There were also claims that Abe was attempting to silence the women with money.
Neither government seems willing to budge.
Moon continues to demand Japanese respect for the South Korean court rulings. Suga has pledged to inherit Abe’s policies and push them forward.
There is a further complicating possibility that South Korean courts might order the liquidation of local assets of Japanese companies that have refused to compensate forced laborers.
A breakthrough might have to come from legislation, but that would not be easy, either.
Former South Korean National Assembly speaker Moon Hee-sang last year proposed creating a foundation financed by private donations from both countries to compensate forced laborers.
The bill, which eventually died, was heavily criticized by lawyers and activists representing victims, who said the foundation would sidestep the Japanese government’s direct responsibility.
“Regardless of who becomes Japan’s next prime minister ... there will be limits to how much bilateral relations can improve unless the countries find a solution to the forced labor issue,” Park said.
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