After Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe tendered his resignation on Friday last week, the main focus in Japanese politics has shifted to his potential successor. As the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which Abe leads, is also the ruling party, following tradition, his successor will also serve as prime minister. Attention is now on whether the newcomer would follow Abe’s policy line and if the succession would affect Taiwan-Japan relations.
Based on how the LDP picked its previous leaders, three major factors will determine the outcome: strategic alliances among party factions, the current leader’s power and endorsement, and public opinion.
According to an opinion poll conducted by the Japan Daily News late last month, the candidate with the strongest public support is Japanese Minister for Overcoming Population Decline and Vitalizing Local Economy Shigeru Ishiba, followed by Japanese Minister of Defense Taro Kono and Japanese Minister of the Environment Shinjiro Koizumi.
However, on the evening that Abe announced his resignation, LDP Secretary-General Toshihiro Nikai was the first to pick sides by naming Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga as a suitable successor, reluctantly adding that former Japanese minister of foreign affairs Fumio Kishida and Ishiba were strong contestants.
Suga, Kishida and Ishiba are undoubtedly the hottest picks, while Kono and Koizumi are dark horses.
As chief cabinet secretary, Suga has been called the pillar of the Abe administration and is undoubtedly Abe’s first pick.
As Abe resigned before the end of his term, his successor will only serve out the remainder of the term, one year. Japanese normally value political continuity, which benefits Suga.
However, while Suga has overseen an orderly Cabinet, some people question whether he has the boldness and decisiveness to serve as prime minister.
Kishida served as foreign minister for four-and-a-half years in the Abe administration. He left the Cabinet in 2017 to serve as chairman of the LDP’s Policy Research Council and has won Abe’s deep trust, although he is neither popular among the public nor a “media darling.”
Ishiba, a former defense minister, is a long-term rival of Abe’s, who twice defeated him in LDP leadership elections. He also enjoys higher popularity among the public than the other candidates.
However, his key to victory lies in whether he can increase his support among LDP lawmakers and local representatives.
Suga has quickly gained the upper hand and is expected to continue Abe’s line if elected. Although Suga is not like Abe, who seems to have a great affection for Taiwan, he accompanied Abe on a visit to Taiwan, and he is deeply aware that the prime minister pays particularly attention to Taiwan-Japan relations.
Kishida, who served as foreign minister for years, is seen as relatively pro-China and as keeping his distance from Taiwan. As he lacks a daring vision, he would not offend Beijing over the Taiwan issue.
Perhaps Ishiba is the one with most strategic thinking. Although he is not too close to Taiwan either, his strategic thinking should prevent him from easily giving up Taiwan-Japan relations.
The next week or two would be critical for the race, as the LDP faces face another round of factional alliances. Who will be elected to lead the LDP eventually? The answer will be revealed soon.
John Lim is a former associate research fellow at Academia Sinica’s Institute of Modern History.
Translated by Eddy Chang
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