Faced with the COVID-19 pandemic, US President Donald Trump said that the next two weeks would be the most critical and painful period for the US.
Three-quarters of US states have issued stay-at-home orders — mostly halting economic activity, but significantly reducing human contact — and the outbreak there is expected to stabilize over the next month or two.
The situation in Europe is nearly identical to that of the US. The best that can be hoped for is that the pandemic stabilizes: It will not disappear without a vaccine or a cure.
The global economic downturn is likely to continue, as all nations remain extremely cautious.
Under the circumstances, the post-COVID-19 situation is likely to play out as follows:
First, the influence of a rising China is likely to be somewhat impeded. Nations participating in Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative, such as Iran and Italy, have suffered during this time due to their close ties with China.
As anti-China sentiment surges among their citizens, the pro-China line of those governments will be strongly challenged.
In the West, the US and leading European powers have gotten their fingers singed for trusting China. The US and the UK publicly condemned Beijing for covering up the epidemic in its initial stages, but why was this lost on other nations, such as Germany and France?
Despite its “grand external propaganda” worldwide, the Chinese government has long been known for its deception, cover-ups and lack of credibility. No major power would trust it again.
Second, Western nations are likely to focus on disease prevention for three months to as long as a year, exacerbating the economic downturn.
Sluggish demand will force companies to order less from upstream suppliers, causing economic growth in China to fall by at least 50 percent, and maybe even as much as 80 percent.
High unemployment in China will erode its efforts to create a “middle-class society.” The number of virus-related deaths in Wuhan might turn out to be less problematic than the impending high levels of unemployment, which will likely cause nationwide disaffection and social chaos.
How will the Chinese government address this? Will Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) be able to emerge unscathed?
Third, while Western nations’ trust in China has plummeted to new depths, Taiwan has emerged as a shining example, despite long-term Chinese suppression.
Taiwan is no longer the corrupt regime that the Western world knew in the Chiang Dynasty. Since being free to undergo democratization, Taiwan has excelled at healthcare, technology, national character and government efficiency, pushing its international status higher.
Fourth, during this period of disease prevention, the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) has been holding the Democratic Progressive Party back, while currying favor with the Chinese communists.
With the KMT’s support rating dropping to less than 20 percent, who will replace it as the main opposition party?
Taiwanese need to also consider their pro-China compatriots who report on the activities of pro-independence advocates to Beijing.
Although they stand by their pro-China claims, they insist on staying in Taiwan — instead of China — during the pandemic. They will find it difficult to avoid criticism by China in the future.
As the pandemic sweeps the world, it exposes the true colors of each nation. In the end, they are all sure to reap what they sow.
Mike Chang is an accountant.
Translated by Eddy Chang
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