The nation’s population problems have gradually come to the fore over the past few years, with the most attention being focused on the falling fertility rate and aging population.
While campaigning for the Jan. 11 presidential and legislative elections, many politicians and parties put forward their ideas about these issues.
Some suggested that the state should pay for the care of children from birth to six years old, and one or two parties went further by calling for the state to pay for the upkeep of everyone older than 75.
If these policy proposals were put into practice, the state would have to feed, clothe and house everyone in their infancy and old age.
Although Taiwanese society has not yet achieved the ideals of Confucius’ “Great Unity,” where “the old are cared for until death and children are nurtured,” it is going to make great strides toward the ideals of a welfare state where people are cared for “from the cradle to the grave.”
These policy proposals might be well-intentioned and sound very attractive. The question is, are they reasonable and can the state afford to pay for the upkeep of so many people?
The nation faces serious population problems, as can be seen from a range of statistics and phenomena. The most serious problem is the falling fertility rate, with each Taiwanese woman, on average, giving birth to 1.13 babies in her lifetime. This figure is lower than the 2.1 children per woman required to maintain a stable population, and far lower than the global average of 2.42.
Taiwan’s fertility rate is the third-lowest in the world, above only Macau and Singapore. A low fertility rate naturally leads to a low birthrate, which in Taiwan stands at just eight births per 1,000 of population per year. This figure is also among the lowest in the world.
The fewer children born, the slower the population will grow. Although Taiwan’s 0.15 percent population growth rate is higher than that of Japan, it is still among the world’s lowest.
While the nation’s birthrate has been falling, its population has been aging faster. The median age in Taiwan is 40.3, which is about 10 years higher than the global median age of 30.6.
Two years ago, the number of Taiwanese aged 65 or older overtook those aged 14 or younger. This is a major indicator of an aging population. In that year the proportion of Taiwanese aged 65 or older reached 14.4 percent, marking Taiwan becoming an aged society.
In 2026, the nation is set to become a super-aged society, as people aged 65 or older would exceed 20 percent of the population.
Taiwan has gone very quickly through the stages of an aging and now aged society. In 14 years, half of the nation’s population is set to be older than 50. Taiwan is aging much faster than many countries that developed earlier.
The government has predicted that there would be fewer births than deaths this year, causing the natural population growth rate to change from positive to negative.
Within a decade, the nation’s total population is forecast to shrink to less than 20 million. In 15 years, it would further shrink to between 16 million and a little more than 18 million — 20 to 30 percent less than today.
The number of people of working age — between 15 and 64 years old — peaked in 2015. Since then, an aging population and falling birthrate have caused it to decline with each passing year.
By 2065, less than 50 percent of the population is forecast to be of working age. Unless the nation attracts people from abroad, its economic development would surely be affected. For Taiwan, where businesses have been going through hard times, it would make things even worse.
The nation’s serious population problems would have an impact on many levels, including the economy, education, society, politics and security. The falling birthrate can indeed be seen as a national security crisis.
With respect to education, from elementary schools to universities, the falling birthrate has led to falling student numbers, inadequate recruitment, scrapping of courses, and mergers and closures of departments and schools. An increasing number of teachers are finding themselves out of a job.
With respect to social issues, when an aging society and falling birthrate happen at the same time, it causes traditional family structures to change, which could lead to negative social consequences.
In Japan it has led to the appearance of “NEETs” — people of working age who are “not in education, employment or training” — with frequent reports of “NEETs” committing suicide or even killing other family members. Similar things are beginning to happen in Taiwan.
Furthermore, the younger generation is trapped in low-paid jobs, while older people tend to have more wealth and higher incomes. The widening gap between the rich and the poor has also widened the social and political divisions between generations.
With regard to national defense, Taiwan stands face-to-face with its major foe, while facing a shortage of young people, yet it has replaced conscription with voluntary service. This is a bad idea and an example of putting political considerations above the nation’s broader interests.
At the same time, the falling birthrate and outflow of talent have led to a serious shortage of talented people. This means that retaining and attracting talent is an urgent task.
The government must respond to these population problems, but the proposal that the state should pay for the upbringing of children from birth to six years old is not a very good solution. It is not hard to see why.
The government can encourage people to have children and, within the constraints of fiscal policy, it can provide appropriate subsidies and care, but having children is a personal matter. The government cannot give birth to children, and it should not go beyond its possible role when it comes to raising them.
The proposal for the state to pay for the upkeep of people aged 75 or older is equally inadvisable. Care in old age is something that people should plan for early to avoid ending up depending on the government.
The proposal would mean shifting the responsibility for something that belongs to the individual onto the state, but who is the state?
State revenue does not fall from the sky: It comes from the public. The government can help the poor and underprivileged, but there is a lesson to be drawn from the example of the many countries that have taken on an inappropriate and excessive share of the responsibilities that should be borne by the individual, consequently dragging down their finances, weighing down the public and causing grievous harm to the next generation.
People cannot shirk their responsibilities, and governments should not think they are omnipotent.
An observation of various countries shows that they generally tackle population problems from aspects such as healthcare, daycare, education, social security, insurance and taxation, and they often complement these measures by reviewing their immigration policies.
Taiwan needs to thoroughly review and adjust its existing policies and measures. It needs to treat this issue seriously as a national security crisis. It has to earnestly seek the right remedies to fix the problem and work out how to implement those solutions effectively through cooperation between government, businesses and individuals. After all, it is the behavior of ordinary people that drives population trends.
Population problems were not made in a day. They have been taking form gradually over the course of many years. It will take vision and foresight to improve the situation that the nation now faces.
The problems that have now emerged exist because the nation did not confront this issue in the past. If it goes on delaying, it would eventually evolve into an unbearable crisis. If that happens, there would be a high price to pay. Taiwan cannot afford not to search for effective solutions.
Translated by Julian Clegg
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