The presidential election is less than two months away, but the chances of winning for Kaohsiung Mayor Han Kuo-yu (韓國瑜), the Chinese Nationalist Party’s (KMT) candidate, do not look promising, judging from the people around me.
Granted, voters whose political inclination leans toward the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) will certainly not vote for Han, but even academics, lawyers and entrepreneurs who have long supported the KMT shake their heads in disapproval upon the mention of Han and wonder why the party would nominate a person who constantly uses vulgar language and recklessly writes checks that bounce, instead of choosing Hon Hai Precision Industry Co founder Terry Gou (郭台銘) or former New Taipei City mayor Eric Chu (朱立倫).
Many pan-blue camp supporters have started to find Han disagreeable, thinking that he brings shame to them. The sentiments are more negative than those they had against Sean Lien (連勝文), the party’s candidate in the 2014 Taipei mayoral election.
Taiwanese voters tend to be influenced by loyalty, personal preference or benefits, and they are easily guided by charismatic political leaders. Regardless of their discontent or reluctance, they would still cast ballots.
However, since the 2008 presidential election, voters have gradually become “rational citizens,” as evidenced by some of the pan-green camp supporters who would rather not vote for the DPP candidate than vote “while holding back their tears” so as to give the party a hard lesson after former president Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) and his family were embroiled in corruption scandals, which struck a huge blow to Chen’s — and the DPP’s — images.
During the 2014 Taipei mayoral election, the KMT nominated Lien, who had no political experience, simply because he is the son of former vice president Lien Chan (連戰). So unpopular was the decision that pan-blue camp voters supported then-independent candidate Ko Wen-je (柯文哲).
Many KMT supporters also said that their support is not blind and inexhaustible — “we will give the party a hard lesson if it goes too far.”
Having evolved from voting “while holding back their tears” to not voting “while holding back their tears,” some voters in Taiwan are moving toward becoming “citizens.” Under such a transformation, political parties can no longer win votes through mere mobilization and ideology — they also need political achievements and good candidates to garner support.
Supporters might not necessarily do an about-face and vote for another party, but if they stay at home on election day, it would still have a tremendous effect on the blue, green and white camps.
Not casting a ballot for a candidate one dislikes is an important development for Taiwan’s gradually maturing democracy.
Han is making a great impact on Taiwan during this election campaign. He is skilled at campaigning and manipulating political language, but as Taiwan enjoys freedom of expression, he has the right to do so. At the same time, Han’s statements and actions are also subject to a high level of scrutiny.
Over the past several months, people have been wondering why Han’s popularity has taken a downturn, why he has lost his lead over President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) and fallen 18 percentage points, and whether he is failing to live up to the expectations of Kaohsiung residents, throwing his hat into the ring before proving his mettle as mayor.
After his win, he turned his back on KMT Legislator Wang Jin-pyng (王金平) and former Kaohsiung County commissioner Yang Chiu-hsing (楊秋興), both of whom made great efforts to help him win the election, which makes one wonder if Han burns important bridges.
His use of vulgar language and careless political pledges make people think he has no respect for basic manners and that he is an irresponsible politician. It was not without reason that People First Party Chairman James Soong (宋楚瑜), before announcing his own presidential bid, said that Han is “good at lying.”
If Han loses the election in January, that would open up the KMT and the pan-blue camp — which have gone too long without reform — to review and evaluate their future direction. If Han wins the election, will Taiwan be thrown into endless chaos by him and his supporters’ narrow-mindedness, or will Taiwan’s future be decided by traditional voters and citizens hoping for reform?
There is a vast difference between success and failure.
Wei Chien-feng is a lawyer.
Translated by Chang Ho-ming
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