So far this year, Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) has called on Taiwanese to adopt a version of the “one country, two systems” model used in Hong Kong, while fighter jets from the People’s Liberation Army Air Force have repeatedly crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait.
In recognition of the gravity of the situation, the US House of Representatives on May 7 passed the Taiwan Assurance Act. With this — alongisde the US’ Taiwan Relations Act, the National Defense Authorization Act for fiscal year 2019 and the Taiwan Travel Act — it is clear that Washington is responding to Beijing’s provocations.
In addition to its plan to annex Taiwan and its military expansionism, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has been employing unfair trade measures and “sharp power” to influence and undermine the international community’s free economic and democratic systems.
The US’ decades-long diplomatic policy of engagement and cooperation with the PRC has shifted to a policy of countering and opposing Beijing’s intensified diplomatic and military offensives against Taiwan.
The US, alongside allied democratic nations, have unleashed a trade dispute designed to besiege and contain authoritarian China. The resulting deteriorating economic situation in China has inflicted a significant blow to its political and social stability.
Against this backdrop, the international community’s implementation of a “one China” policy is likely to undergo a significant transformation.
To guarantee its survival, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) abide by the fair trade principles of free markets and the tenets of Western civilization. It will also be difficult for Beijing to continue to demand that other nations adhere to its “one China” principle.
Beijing is using Taiwan’s complex ethnic and political environment and its increasingly strident pro-China fifth column to wage a two-pronged assault against Taiwan.
The strategy comprises an orchestrated propaganda and military fear campaign, combined with policies designed to ensnare Taiwan into economic dependency.
The aim of this campaign is to help bring the opposition into government and then use so-called “democratic consultations” to force Taiwan onto a “one country, two systems” path of unification with China.
Even if the Democratic Progressive Party holds on to power after next year’s presidential elections, given the extreme asymmetric nature of Taiwan and China’s military strength, Beijing will eventually attempt to annex Taiwan by force.
If this happens, the US would be unable to provide assistance in time, so Taiwan would fall.
Beijing will use psychological warfare and economic integration to unify Taiwan with China. Once this happens, the Taiwan Strait will become a domestic Chinese waterway and the US military would be pushed out of the Western Pacific.
The US would also be deprived of its strategic line of defense in East Asia, while the PRC would be able to threaten the security of Japan and other Asian nations.
In short, the loss of Taiwan would seriously harm the US’ national interests in the region and damage its image and reputation as the guardian of democracy around the world.
If Washington wants to prevent the grave consequences of a PRC-controlled Taiwan, its only option is to take advantage of the Xi regime’s present instability and use it to amend its “one China” policy.
Beijing would not dare to sever diplomatic relations at this time. Washington should amend the US’ “one China” policy by recognizing and signing a mutual defense pact with Taiwan and once again station troops there to deter Beijing from making any rash moves.
If the US adopts dual recognition of Taiwan and China, that would encourage other nations, such as Japan, to amend their own “one China” policies and formally recognize Taiwan.
If a domino effect swept the globe, the PRC — in the middle of a serious economic slowdown — would not dare break off diplomatic relations with all nations recognizing Taiwan.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs should enlist the help of influential US think tanks such as the Heritage Foundation, the National Business Association and RAND Corp to produce an in-depth report that could be used to influence policy within the White House and bring about a change to the US’ “one China” policy.
Michael Lin is a retired diplomat who served in the US.
Translated by Edward Jones
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