The stakes are high for the nation’s sovereignty and its people in next year’s presidential election. The Chinese Nationalist Party’s (KMT) talk of a cross-strait peace treaty and China’s increasingly frequent mentions of its unification goal mean that it would be even more difficult for Taiwan to resist Chinese annexation if voters put the wrong person in the Presidential Office.
The question that pan-green supporters have been asking each other — but dread hearing the answer to — is: “Do you think President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) could win re-election?”
The answer depends heavily on the KMT’s choice of candidate.
The Democratic Progressive Party’s poor showing in the local elections in November last year have given a record number of pan-blue politicians the courage to throw their hats into the ring.
Former New Taipei City mayor Eric Chu (朱立倫), former Taipei County commissioner Chou Hsi-wei (周錫瑋) and former premier Simon Chang (張善政) have already declared their interest, with KMT Legislator Wang Jin-ping (王金平), the former legislative speaker, set to announce his bid this month.
KMT Chairman Wu Den-yih (吳敦義) is also expected to declare his candidacy, even though he has been tight-lipped about his intentions.
Another person rumored to be a possible candidate is former president Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九), although it seems unlikely that he would seek another term, as doing so could attract criticism that he is clinging to power and could set a precedent that would see more former leaders run for office again after a four-year hiatus.
However, the person most likely to represent the KMT next year is Wu, considering his ability to mobilize party resources and the strong support he enjoys among KMT members — Wu was supported by the majority of members in a six-legged chairperson election in 2017.
The irony is that, among the possible candidates, Wu might be the least likely to win a general election due to his consistently poor public support ratings, which would be good news for those worried about Taiwan’s sovereignty if the KMT returned to power.
So the important questions are: Will the KMT nominate someone who is popular within the party, but not with the public? Will its members be able to see the bigger picture and block Wu’s bid?
There are no clear answers to these questions, but the KMT Central Standing Committee’s decision on Wednesday to retain its current primary system of public opinion polls and member surveys with a 70-30 weighting does not seem to favor Wu or Chu.
Knowing his weakness, Wu had tried to push for a primary that put more weight on party members. He also at one point argued that it made more sense to allow only KMT members to decide the party’s candidate.
On the other hand, Chu, who enjoys higher public support ratings, had urged the party to choose its candidate based solely on public opinion polls, saying that it would ensure that the candidate stands a better chance of winning the general election.
It remains to be seen whether the KMT will keep letting those in power put their personal interests above that of the party.
Sadly, many are counting on that happening so that Taiwan can continue to be Taiwan.
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