The sensation caused by Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Kaohsiung mayoral candidate Han Kuo-yu (韓國瑜) has made the pan-green camp nervous, worrying that they might lose the Kaohsiung post. Meanwhile, the pan-blue camp sees Han as a driving force and hopes that he will boost momentum for KMT candidates across Taiwan.
However, a passionate campaign is no guarantee of winning votes. A campaign rally can be splendid with the enthusiastic participation of 5 percent of residents in an electoral district, but most voters are rarely involved in campaign activities unless they are given some “special stimulation.”
Four sets of candidates ran in the 1996 presidential election, three of them from the pan-blue camp. The Lin Yang-kang (林洋港)-Hau Pei-tsun (郝柏村) ticket had the biggest mobilization of supporters, while the KMT ticket of incumbent Lee Teng-hui (李登輝) paired with Lien Chan (連戰) was third.
However, the election results were the exact the opposite, showing that supporters of the Lin-Hau ticket were only effective at driving campaign activities, not votes.
This was because New Party members were motivated by their opposition to Lee’s push for localization and gave their full support to Lin to maintain the legitimacy of KMT rule by following Chiang Ching-kuo’s (蔣經國) strategy of using Taiwanese to control Taiwan.
The New Party’s opposition to localization triggered fear among voters, who concentrated their votes on the Lee-Lien ticket. Even supporters of Peng Ming-min (彭明敏) and Frank Hsieh (謝長廷), who ran on the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) ticket, were attracted to Lee, who won 54 percent of the vote.
Han’s popularity could end the same way, with Taiwanese concentrating their votes on the DPP due to fears of Chinese pressure.
People generally believe that the DPP’s decline in Kaohsiung is a result of Han’s rise, but it has nothing to do with him.
The DPP’s campaign team in the city is led by former mayor turned Presidential Office Secretary-General Chen Chu (陳菊), who is influential in southern Taiwan and could well be called the “Queen of Kaohsiung.” In the past, a city councilor or legislator in any Kaohsiung constituency who had Chen’s support would easily be elected.
However, before she stepped down as mayor in April to take up her new post, DPP Legislator Liu Shih-fang (劉世芳), who Chen had groomed to be her successor, withdrew from the party’s primary to save Chen’s New Tide faction from internal power struggles. This hinted that Chen’s momentum was collapsing, although there was no election to make that apparent.
President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) has also had an effect on the election. She is like a a chef who focuses on cooking skills without understanding her customers’ tastes. She considers herself a great chef, but her customers do not find her dishes palatable.
As Tsai departs from the mainstream, many are turning away from the DPP. This, along with the decline of Chen’s influence in Kaohsiung, has created a crisis for DPP mayoral candidate Chen Chi-mai (陳其邁).
The problem for Han is that he opposes localization. In 1993, he even punched then-DPP legislator Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁).
However, his mayoral bid could unite the pan-green camp, and, more importantly, increase turnout among pan-green camp supporters, making the Chen Chi-mai the biggest winner.
Chen Mao-hsiung is a retired professor at National Sun Yat-sen University and chairman of the Society for the Promotion of Taiwanese Security.
Translated by Eddy Chang
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