The registration for the Chinese Nationalist Party’s (KMT) Taipei mayoral primary closed on March 16, with four people — former legislators Ting Shou-chung (丁守中), Sun Ta-chien (孫大千) and Chang Hsien-yao (張顯耀) and Taipei City Councilor Chung Hsiao-ping (鍾小平) — signing up.
As for the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), several members have expressed their intention to run, but whether the party will contest the election remains uncertain.
Most KMT members would be happy to see a DPP candidate taking the deep-green vote from Taipei Mayor Ko Wen-je (柯文哲), in the hope that the split would give the KMT the mayorship.
Still, the KMT must be cautious lest it sees a repetition of the 2010 Kaohsiung mayoral election, when its candidate came in last.
That was the first election after Kaohsiung city and county were merged. Kaohsiung Mayor Chen Chu (陳菊) won the DPP primary, defeating former Kaohsiung county commissioner Yang Chiu-hsing (楊秋興).
Unhappy over what he saw as attacks against him during the primary, Yang left the party and ran as an independent against Chen and KMT candidate Huang Chao-shun (黃昭順).
At first, the KMT was elated over the prospect of a DPP split, but then Yang shifted his stance on cross-strait policy toward the KMT.
In the end, Chen received 52.8 percent of the vote (821,089 votes), while Huang ended up in third place, 6 percentage points behind Yang.
The number of votes Chen gathered in 2010 was similar to then-DPP candidate Tsai Ing-wen’s (蔡英文) Kaohsiung vote during the 2012 presidential election (883,158), while Yang’s and Huang’s combined total (734,124) was about equal to KMT candidate Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) and People First Party James Soong’s (宋楚瑜) total (769,930).
Yang’s independent candidacy drew most of his support from the pan-blue camp.
In the Nov. 24 Taipei mayoral election, if Ko maintains the position on cross-strait issues that he held four years ago — which was closer to the DPP’s — the KMT stands a good chance of winning.
However, Ko has modified his position over the past four years, although it might just be sophistry. After all, even pro-independence stalwart Koo Kwang-ming (辜寬敏) has said that Taiwan and China can be “brothers,” close, but separate countries.
That implies Ko’s talk of Taiwan and China being one family with a “shared destiny” could still be interpreted as the two sides being two separate countries.
However, the general public tends to respond instinctively and hearing the shift in Ko’s position would make many think he is moving closer to the KMT.
If the KMT nominates a candidate with a low support rating, while the DPP puts forward an unexpectedly competitive candidate to win pro-green voters, pro-blue camp supporters might abandon the KMT to vote for Ko — whose current position at first blush seems to resemble their own — to prevent the DPP candidate from winning.
Looking at the Taipei mayoral election results over the past decade, it would not be impossible for Ko to win with 510,000 votes, placing him ahead of the DPP with 500,000 votes and the KMT with 490,000.
Instead of waiting for the DPP to make a mistake, the KMT should prepare itself by strengthening its candidate’s program to make him more attractive to voters.
Chi Chieh is a youth member of the KMT’s Huang Fu-hsing branch.
Translated by Chang Ho-ming
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