Third graders might have difficulty with multiplication and division, but they can cope with addition and subtraction of large figures. They might have difficulty extrapolating economic or climate change trends, but they will not find extrapolation of population size challenging.
The population in 20 years can be predicted from the number of births this year: Those turning 20 now were born 20 years ago. If too few people were born then, this year the nation will experience a shortage of students and workers. There will be no turning the clock back to encourage people to churn out babies for the nation.
Taiwan’s low birth rate has long been a matter of debate. The number of births fell from 247,000 in 2002 to 227,000 in 2003, hung at about the 190,000 to 200,000 mark for a while and dipped to 167,000 in 2009.
The percentage of middle-aged and elderly people increasing relative to other age groups has meant a corresponding increase in the death rate. Unless the birth rate goes up, the number of deaths per year in seven or eight years will exceed the number of births, and Taiwan’s population will start to shrink.
In 2012, I forecast that if the trends of low rates of birth, marriage and raising kids continued, the population would decline, which would hurt the property market. I was accused of propagating alarmist rhetoric.
However, we are already seeing this happening — at an accelerating rate — outside the more desirable neighborhoods.
This year, the number of births is set to be as low as 200,000. The ramifications of this will be felt in 18 years, when only 200,000 people — and presumably less than 100,000 males — will turn 18. These, minus the less able-bodied, will number from 170,000 to 180,000 in total over two years of military service.
The Ministry of National Defense says it needs 175,000 soldiers, meaning that male conscription alone will be insufficient to fill the ranks. How is the shortfall to be made up?
Only 167,000 Taiwanese — and only 83,000 males — were born in 2009. They will reach 18 in 2027. At that point, university recruitment and military conscription will hit a major crisis.
Some have suggested moving from a division of labor along gender lines; for example, from women responsible for childcare while the dangerous jobs are left for men to a kind of “gender equality” in which both men and women do military service, road maintenance, construction work and firefighting. The alternative would be spending money importing manual labor.
The math is something third graders could manage, and yet senior officials are unable or unwilling to work this out. Fully cognizant of the seriousness of the situation, ministers of education have continued to try to boost the number of universities.
Another idea is social — as opposed to military — conscription, recruiting women to look after children. People do not react too well to suggestions that everyone should spend their time and money helping raise the next generation, saying such proposals entail forcing women against their will. Remember that compulsory service has been expected of men for decades.
It is just a case of do not ask me to do anything to help; I am too busy. Or, do not ask for money, I do not have enough for myself. The government, employers and the wealthy will never run out of excuses. After all, it will no longer be their problem in 10 or 20 years.
More universities and buildings can be built, but these are going to become little more than breeding grounds for mosquitoes. People aged 40 or 50 now will live another three or four decades; those aged 20 another six. These are the people that are going to have to deal with today’s failure to address the problem.
Yaung Chih-liang is a former minister of health and welfare.
Translated by Paul Cooper
A high-school student surnamed Yang (楊) gained admissions to several prestigious medical schools recently. However, when Yang shared his “learning portfolio” on social media, he was caught exaggerating and even falsifying content, and his admissions were revoked. Now he has to take the “advanced subjects test” scheduled for next month. With his outstanding performance in the general scholastic ability test (GSAT), Yang successfully gained admissions to five prestigious medical schools. However, his university dreams have now been frustrated by the “flaws” in his learning portfolio. This is a wake-up call not only for students, but also teachers. Yang did make a big
As former president Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) concludes his fourth visit to China since leaving office, Taiwan finds itself once again trapped in a familiar cycle of political theater. The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has criticized Ma’s participation in the Straits Forum as “dancing with Beijing,” while the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) defends it as an act of constitutional diplomacy. Both sides miss a crucial point: The real question is not whether Ma’s visit helps or hurts Taiwan — it is why Taiwan lacks a sophisticated, multi-track approach to one of the most complex geopolitical relationships in the world. The disagreement reduces Taiwan’s
Former president Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) is visiting China, where he is addressed in a few ways, but never as a former president. On Sunday, he attended the Straits Forum in Xiamen, not as a former president of Taiwan, but as a former Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) chairman. There, he met with Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference Chairman Wang Huning (王滬寧). Presumably, Wang at least would have been aware that Ma had once been president, and yet he did not mention that fact, referring to him only as “Mr Ma Ying-jeou.” Perhaps the apparent oversight was not intended to convey a lack of
Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Chairman Eric Chu (朱立倫) last week announced that the KMT was launching “Operation Patriot” in response to an unprecedented massive campaign to recall 31 KMT legislators. However, his action has also raised questions and doubts: Are these so-called “patriots” pledging allegiance to the country or to the party? While all KMT-proposed campaigns to recall Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) lawmakers have failed, and a growing number of local KMT chapter personnel have been indicted for allegedly forging petition signatures, media reports said that at least 26 recall motions against KMT legislators have passed the second signature threshold
RSS