The issue of China using military force to bring about unification with Taiwan appears once every couple of years or so in Taiwan, a bit like asthma. Not long ago, former president Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) brought up the issue again.
As those pushing for “unification of the motherland” no longer have a political platform, they have to hide behind criminal gangs or Chinese-funded media outlets to be able to disseminate their threats about unification through military force.
Would it really be that easy for China to attack Taiwan? Taiwan’s military strength — 17th in the world — is sufficient to defend the nation. If China wants to launch an attack, it might not necessarily gain the upper hand and could even face economic sanctions from Western countries. Would such a move be worth it or even necessary?
Those who clamor about unification through military force seem to live in the era of secret societies a century ago. They should wake up and return to reality. China will have to face some bigger issues over the next 20 years.
First, the Chinese education system’s continued hostile portrayal of Western countries does not match the realities of the young generation. China’s interactions with Western countries over the past 30 years have brought technological advancement and economic prosperity.
Anachronistically, Beijing frequently incites populist-style nationalism by citing foreign powers’ invasion of China in the 19th century. Would young people born in the past 30 years not question this?
China’s intellectuals must rethink their relationship with the world. No country has attempted to invade Chinese territory in the past three decades; instead Beijing is claiming the South China Sea as its own while repeatedly intruding on the territorial waters and airspace of neighboring countries.
China enjoys commercial, scientific and technological benefits from maintaining a peaceful relationship with the world — why would it want to destroy that?
Second, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) will have to face questions from Chinese intellectuals wondering why the nation must be led by the CCP and no one else. After all, the Chiang (蔣) family lost its power in Taiwan after 50 years and the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) has declined.
The CCP might be able to control traditional media, block social media and mobilize pro-Beijing academics to pretend that everything is going well now, but will it be able to continue to block word of mouth or the young generation’s experiences?
Third, will the Chinese economy continue to grow? Today, the problems following China’s one-child policy have already started to show as national productivity has been reduced by half, while the burden of the elderly has doubled as a result of the policy.
As production decreases, the Chinese economy is likely to decline. If that happens, will China be able to maintain its massive military budget?
Finally, national defense strategies around the world have changed. Despite North Korea’s fragile conventional military strength, US President Donald Trump dares not act and does nothing more than scold North Korea and its leaders on Twitter.
Looking at North Korea’s situation and the intelligence of Taiwan’s military and private sector, would it really be that difficult to come up with ways of deterring an invasion by a big power and protecting Taiwan’s national sovereignty, independence and its free and democratic way of life?
Taiwan should focus on continued reform, economic growth, sovereignty and independence and increasing the public’s income and happiness. China will be busy with its own problems over the next 20 years.
Mike Chang is an accountant.
Translated by Eddy Chang
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