Sat, May 13, 2017 page9

• Macron victory gives Brussels confidence boost on EU’s future

  With the existential threat posed by the French election averted, EU leaders see an opportunity to reset project Europe

  • By Jennifer Rankin / The Guardian
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  When French president-elect Emmanuel Macron walked across the courtyard of the Louvre on Sunday to the rousing finale of Beethoven’s Ode to Joy, the EU anthem, few doubted it was a win not only for his untested political movement, but for the European project, too.

  After the defeat of the far right in Austria and disappointment for the rabble-rousing populist Geert Wilders in the Netherlands, Brussels hailed the Macron victory as a sign of faith in European unity.

  Martin Selmayr, chief of staff to European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, said on Twitter: “Kick off: Felix Austria. Quarter final: Stable Netherlands: Semi final: La France en marche!”

  

  Illustration: Tania Chou

  Selmayr did not mention the final: German elections in September, where the prospects of a fourth term for German Chancellor Angela Merkel were bolstered on Sunday night, after her Christian Democratic Union unexpectedly trounced its junior coalition partner, the Social Democratic Party, in a regional contest.

  However, the French presidential runoff was the most existential threat for the EU — a quasi referendum on the 60-year-old integration project.

  Macron won on a platform that conventional wisdom insisted was doomed: He spoke of the “dream” of the EU, although was “not naive” when it came to its mistakes.

  His defeated rival, Marine Le Pen, had called for a referendum on leaving the eurozone and predicted the EU would die.

  No wonder EU leaders sound increasingly confident after her defeat, buoyed by the hope that the Euroskeptic wave has peaked.

  “We have the possibility of launching a new phase,” Italian Undersecretary for European Affairs Sandro Gozi told the Guardian. “It won’t be always easy... On one side we have to make the best possible of Brexit negotiations, we have to limit the damage... On the other hand it is essential that there will be a parallel process of relaunch and of deepening European integration.”

  Security would be the first issue to speed up integration among “willing and able” countries, Gozi said, making clear that anyone else can join in later.

  “The community wouldn’t exist if in 1951 or 1957 the six European democracies decided to wait for the other European democracies,” he said.

  Far from fracturing the EU, Brexit could be forcing it together, or at least, offers respite from poisonous arguments over refugees and eurozone discipline.

  “For the first time in two centuries, the British are faced with a continental blockade as Napoleon attempted in 1806 — the difference is this time it works,” an editorial in Le Monde said.

  Brigid Laffan is a professor at the European University Institute, a training ground for EU leaders.

  “One of the paradoxes of [US President Donald] Trump and Brexit is that it has brought it home to individual Europeans ... that Europe has to be fought for and protected. People don’t like what they see and that temptation to support the extremes is being contained,” she said.

  Laffan sees a “political window of opportunity of about five years” to reset the European project, depending on election results in Germany and Italy.

  “There is an opportunity for EU member states to redefine the next phase,” she said. “Can they do so successfully? The EU by definition is going to disappoint, because it is always going to under-deliver given how hard it is to keep 27 countries together.”

  Better economic news is also putting wind in the EU’s sails. After years of slow growth, the 19 economies of the eurozone are expanding faster than expected.

  Polls show a rise in public support, with more people saying EU membership is a good thing. Pro-EU sentiment has even risen by a modest amount in the UK.

  Even more significantly, for the first time since Britain’s referendum in June last year, more British think Brexit is wrong than right, according to a YouGov poll for the Times.

  “The situation is changing,” European Parliament President Antonio Tajani said in an interview.

  He contends there is less support for Euroskepticism because populist parties have failed to convince voters they can change things.

  “People want good solutions for the most important things... The [populist parties] don’t have solutions, they are only against,” he said.

  The EU has also become more assertive at defending itself.

  European Council President Donald Tusk surprised and pleased some diplomats when he described the new US administration as one of the “threats” that made life for the EU unpredictable.

  Similarly, the European Commission recently hit back at the “incorrect” and “highly misleading” claims of the Stop Brussels campaign promoted by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban — a stark contrast to their refusal to get involved in the mudslinging of the British referendum.

  Macron’s victory in France will allow EU officials to dust off plans for deeper eurozone integration, such as a common finance minister and treasury — ideas that had previously stalled, in part because of France’s political weakness and Germany’s reluctance to take the lead.

  Guntram Wolff, director of think tank Bruegel, cautioned against expecting a dramatic shift in German policy in response to Macron’s victory.

  Wolff forecast gradual steps, such as the completion of banking union.

  “I don’t think we can create a eurozone federal state overnight,” he said.

  However, not every EU leader will be so cheerful about the French result and the prospects of deeper integration.

  The “big losers” from Macron’s election were the right-wing Euroskeptic governments in Poland and Hungary, according to Ivan Krastev, chair of the Center for Liberal Strategies in Sofia.

  Macron’s focus on closer ties with Berlin might cause fears that “two-tier Europe means the marginalization of eastern Europe, marginalization in terms of transfer of funds, but also marginalization of political importance,” Krastev said.

  These governments “are afraid of the disintegration of the EU,” but also “afraid of further integration, because this is going to hurt the illiberal model of political model of illiberal democracy that they are trying to impose,” Krastev said.

  This assumes Macron can succeed and the French president-elect faces a daunting challenge. He could struggle to meet his promise to reform France’s labor laws, hobbling chances of a more equal partnership with Germany.

  His failure — already predicted by Le Pen’s supporters — could usher in more support for anti-EU forces.

  Neither can the clouds on the EU horizon be blown away by just one election.

  In Greece, the eurozone crisis is in remission, but many see another round of “extend and pretend” that leaves Greeks facing decades of austerity.

  Italy is expected to replace Le Pen as the biggest political concern of all: The Five Star Movement, which wants to quit the euro, is leading in polls, raising the possibility of an almighty eurozone crisis and global economic shock.

  Gozi still thinks former Italian prime minister Matteo Renzi can stage a comeback to lead the Italian Democratic party to victory.

  “I think we can win a general election,” Gozi has said.

  Meanwhile, Gozi has urged Macron to move quickly on his big reforms.

  “Better than one big big bang than one reform after another, especially in countries like Italy and France where there is a strong resistance to change,” he said.
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