British Prime Minister Theresa May is playing hardball as she pursues a “hard Brexit.”
Her agenda is now to leave the single market, quit sending large sums of money to Brussels, clamp down on immigration and restore law-making powers to British politicians and judges.
In her much-anticipated speech on how she wants to withdraw the UK from the EU, May interpreted the narrow vote in June last year as a clarion call for change.
Instead of the EU membership that evolved over four decades, she told an audience of European diplomats in London on Tuesday that she wants to customize the customs union and deliver a “bold and ambitious” fresh trade deal with the bloc.
Her ideal accord would allow tariff-free trade between the UK and the EU, while she would secure the liberty to strike new pacts with other countries. London-based banks could still provide services across the continent with ease and get time to adjust to the new order.
May’s speech put to rest recent suggestions that the prime minister should be dubbed “Theresa Maybe” for being too cautious to act. Having slid ahead of it on concern over what she had planned, the pound enjoyed its biggest surge against the US dollar since 2008 on the guarantee of a vote in parliament.
Her aim is to achieve her wish list in the two years allocated for divorce talks, despite possible skepticism, given that any trade pact would need the sign-off of all 27 EU members. Failure to get what she wants would mean her taking the UK out of Europe with “no deal’’ at all, she said.
“One might expect a successful negotiating strategy to have ambitious objectives and a credible fall-back position,’’ JPMorgan Chase & Co economist Malcolm Barr said. “May certainly has the former, but we doubt the prime minister has the latter.’’
To those in Europe who blanch at such ambition, she said signing up to her model would be “economically rational” for them since the UK is “a crucial — profitable — export market” for its companies. She warned those who want to punish the UK for its decision to leave that they would be conducting “an act of calamitous self-harm.”
Such a tough approach carries risks. It will almost certainly trigger a battle between the prime minister and pro-European lawmakers at home who worry she could still wreck the economy. She sought to deflect their attacks by promising a parliamentary vote on the final deal.
The shape of the final agreement also will not, ultimately, be up to May. It will be the views of the other EU member states, molded by EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier, which will be decisive.
EU officials welcomed May’s new-found transparency, while repeating their long-held lines that they will not enter negotiations before May formally says she wants out, and that the UK will not be allowed to enjoy the full advantages of EU membership without accepting the responsibilities.
Businesses gave a mixed response. While they welcomed the clarity and the signal of a transition, they worried May is sacrificing trade to deal with social issues and regain sovereignty. Bankers said they will continue studying whether to shift jobs to the EU to maintain access.
The ultimate verdict on May’s strategy potentially remains years away. Only when the final details of any new UK-EU trade agreement are clear, after as many as two years of discussions, will it be possible to evaluate the prime minister’s approach. Everything now rides on how the EU reacts.
In her speech, May mixed sweetness with spice. While the UK wants to be “reliable partners, willing allies and close friends,’’ it will also fight back if the EU decides to punish it, she said.
Retaliation against the UK “would not be the act of a friend,’’ she said. “Britain would not — indeed we could not — accept such an approach.’’
One way Europe could strike back is to present May with a large exit bill totaling billions of euros and use the timing of talks on transition as a negotiating chip.
What exactly the prime minister would be prepared to do in the event a deal cannot be reached was not fully spelled out. She talked about action to radically cut business taxes and attract the best and biggest businesses away from Europe to the UK.
She also implied that the current joint work on security, intelligence and military collaboration could stop, an outcome that May suspects would hurt Europe more than the UK. She mentioned Britain’s highly-rated intelligence services four times in her speech — the same number of times as she said the words “customs union.”
The question will be whether May’s gamble pays off or whether she is repeating the same mistakes as her predecessor, David Cameron, in last year’s referendum.
Just as he underestimated the willingness of voters to risk economic prosperity in exchange for gaining control over law-making and immigration, May runs the risk of failing to see the importance to Europe of protecting the EU as a political project, whatever the cost.
May’s game of hard ball might increase her chances of achieving the best deal possible, but also of ending up with nothing.
President William Lai (賴清德) attended a dinner held by the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) when representatives from the group visited Taiwan in October. In a speech at the event, Lai highlighted similarities in the geopolitical challenges faced by Israel and Taiwan, saying that the two countries “stand on the front line against authoritarianism.” Lai noted how Taiwan had “immediately condemned” the Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel by Hamas and had provided humanitarian aid. Lai was heavily criticized from some quarters for standing with AIPAC and Israel. On Nov. 4, the Taipei Times published an opinion article (“Speak out on the
More than a week after Hondurans voted, the country still does not know who will be its next president. The Honduran National Electoral Council has not declared a winner, and the transmission of results has experienced repeated malfunctions that interrupted updates for almost 24 hours at times. The delay has become the second-longest post-electoral silence since the election of former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernandez of the National Party in 2017, which was tainted by accusations of fraud. Once again, this has raised concerns among observers, civil society groups and the international community. The preliminary results remain close, but both
News about expanding security cooperation between Israel and Taiwan, including the visits of Deputy Minister of National Defense Po Horng-huei (柏鴻輝) in September and Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Francois Wu (吳志中) this month, as well as growing ties in areas such as missile defense and cybersecurity, should not be viewed as isolated events. The emphasis on missile defense, including Taiwan’s newly introduced T-Dome project, is simply the most visible sign of a deeper trend that has been taking shape quietly over the past two to three years. Taipei is seeking to expand security and defense cooperation with Israel, something officials
The Taipei Women’s Rescue Foundation has demanded an apology from China Central Television (CCTV), accusing the Chinese state broadcaster of using “deceptive editing” and distorting the intent of a recent documentary on “comfort women.” According to the foundation, the Ama Museum in Taipei granted CCTV limited permission to film on the condition that the footage be used solely for public education. Yet when the documentary aired, the museum was reportedly presented alongside commentary condemning Taiwan’s alleged “warmongering” and criticizing the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) government’s stance toward Japan. Instead of focusing on women’s rights or historical memory, the program appeared crafted
RSS