Following the telephone call between President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) and US president-elect Donald Trump, the reaction from Taiwanese media has not been particularly positive or cheerful. Quite the reverse, anxiety-riven commentators have expressed concern that Beijing, embarrassed by Trump, might fly into a rage and seek to counter the US.
Small nations do not fare well when they become caught up in a scrap between two major powers. Caught in a trap between Washington and Beijing, Taiwan is now at a crossroads and has to decide on three paths: side with the US, ally with China or refrain from taking sides.
During his eight years in office, former president Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) did not ally himself with either China or the US. As a result, rather than being able to foster warm relations with both sides, Chen ended up having frosty relations with both. Chen fell out with Washington, while Beijing launched a series of verbal attacks, so that Chen ended up being labeled a troublemaker.
During former president Ma Ying-jeou’s (馬英九) presidency, he chose to side with the Chinese Communist Party. His politics were guided by the sentiment in Beijing, and he relied on Chinese tourism and bound Taiwan’s economy closely to China’s. After eight years of Ma’s bragging, where is the political and economic dividend he spoke about? Taiwan is still almost entirely constrained from participating in international events, while the tourism industry drank from the poisoned cup, drove away tourists from other countries and economic momentum slowed, causing “eight lost years.”
In Hong Kong’s elections, China screens the candidates for chief executive and resorts to legal interpretations to block dissident elected legislators. Given the example of Hong Kong’s democracy, one can only wonder how Taiwanese, who have tasted real democracy, could not be fearful of Chinese rule.
When Taiwanese elect their president, the Chinese outsider does not remain a quiet bystander, but tries to boss Taiwan around with loud threats.
Beijing says: Accept the so-called “1992 consensus,” or “mountains will move and the Earth will shake” and the same thing will happen if you elect someone we do not like.
Given this brutal and domineering approach to all things Taiwan and the inability to show respect and tolerance, will Taiwanese move closer to China, or turn their back on it?
Siding with China is not the right thing to do. China is the problem, not Taiwan.
If Taiwan does not choose between the US and China, it will have nowhere to turn. If it sides with Beijing, China would suppress Taiwan’s political space and hijack the economy. The only thing left is to follow the example of Israel, which also faces mighty enemies, and side with democratic US. If Israel, another small nation, can stand tall in the Middle East, it is only because in addition to its own strength, it has the support of the US.
If China is casting covetous eyes on Taiwan and if the nation does not want the democratic system that its people have worked so hard for to be emasculated in the same way that Hong Kong’s has been, then kowtowing to China is the worst thing it can do. Doing so would only lead down a dark, dead-end street. It is only by working hard and building its own strength and siding with democratic US, a country that has no claims on Taiwan’s territory, that the nation will be able to stand up to tyrannical China.
Chang Kuo-tsai was an associate professor at National Hsinchu University of Education before retiring, and a former deputy secretary-general of the Taiwan Association of University Professors.
Translated by Eward Jones and Perry Svensson
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