What a shock that the prolonged US presidential campaign ended with the victory of US president-elect Donald Trump.
Trump’s election campaign called into question many long-standing US political, socioeconomic and cultural values and norms. Running his campaign against a culture of political correctness, Trump used demeaning rhetoric to insult women, migrants, African-Americans, Latinos, Muslims, Syrian refugees and liberals.
His vision of foreign policy was equally problematic. He showed a lack of sophistication in comprehending international affairs and risked destroying the US-led global system designed to manage regional conflicts.
His casual announcement of the possible withdrawal of 54,000 US troops from Japan and 28,500 from South Korea alarmed Tokyo and Seoul. Fearing US abandonment in a possible military crisis, Japan and South Korea recognized that they could not rely on the US for protection and might need nuclear weapons to maximize their deterrence capability against North Korea.
Similarly, troubled by Trump’s remark that “everything is negotiable,” a generation of Europeans who have taken US military support for granted might have to rethink NATO’s strategic function.
Despite Trump’s criticism of its trading practices, China saw an opportunity to renegotiate with the US over Taiwan and the South China Sea disputes.
Now, the dust kicked up by the US presidential campaign has settled and people are nervous about the future of East Asian security under a Trump administration.
For Trump, the fundamental question is whether the US will continue to back a regional balance of power through mutual defense agreements with tis allies, or whether it is prepared to let Asia drift toward Chinese hegemony.
The first approach is built on the existing mechanism of bilateral alliances through which the US employs a dual strategy of containment and engagement to deal with China and ensure regional security in Asia. Seeking to make room for a constructive relationship, Washington always consults Beijing over the North Korean nuclear crisis while calling for peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait.
The second approach places China at the heart of the US geopolitical thinking toward Asia and perceives a strategic partnership with Beijing as more important than other bilateral collaborations. Beijing is keen to see this “China first” policy in Trump’s White House. This explains why in late 2014, Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) called on US President Barack Obama to redefine the bilateral ties as “a new type of superpower relations.”
This accommodating policy could elevate China to being the most dominant player in East Asian politics and appeal to the rising nationalist sentiment there. However, it might force the US to accept China’s version of the Monroe Doctrine, especially its proclaimed control over Taiwan and all international waterways, trade routes, islands and maritime resources in the East and South China Sea. This outcome is bound to antagonize US allies in the Pacific region and trigger a regional arms race.
Trump has yet to make appointments to replace US Secretary of State John Kerry and US Assistant Secretary of East Asian and Pacific Affairs Daniel Russel. As the Trump transition team is configuring its East Asian strategy and identifying new geopolitical partners in the coming months, the major challenge would be to strike a balance between accommodating China’s rise to power and mobilizing US allies to support a security system led by Washington.
Many Asian states are prioritizing their own agendas in a highly fluid landscape of geopolitics. The Philippines and Malaysia represent the latest pragmatic initiatives to play China against the US and Japan to extract economic gains.
In this regard, Taiwan should redouble its efforts to engage the international community and seek a wider diplomatic platform.
In recent years, some US political scientists and think tanks advised Washington to severe all security ties with Taiwan to appease China. This suggestion could prompt fresh anxiety in Japan, South Korea and other allies regarding their defense pacts with the US.
Like neighboring states, Taiwan needs a peaceful and benign environment to concentrate on domestic development. While the nation has positioned itself as an attractive model of democratic change for China, Hong Kong and Macau, it should expand official and unofficial links with Washington and convey its geopolitical concerns to the next US administration.
Joseph Tse-Hei Lee is professor of history at Pace University in New York City.
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