The Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) remarkable landslide victory in January’s presidential election seems to be ancient history. Much media attention has been given to President Tsai Ing-wen’s (蔡英文) approval ratings and the increasing frustration with her reform agendas.
Looking back, Tsai’s victory owed much to a sweeping desire for change among Taiwanese. There was a great expectation for Tsai to turn things around and make everyone’s dreams come true.
However, this created a risk. Unrealistic hope often leads to great disappointment. When things do not go as smoothly as expected, the sense of hope and optimism evaporates and is replaced by a collective feeling of betrayal and outrage. This change in attitude is reminiscent of the outburst of popular support for Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, the Brexit referendum in the UK and Republican US presidential candidate Donald Trump’s campaign in the US.
What contributed to Tsai’s electoral success was that many moderate Taiwanese voted for the DPP to protest against the Chinese Nationalist Party’s (KMT) rapprochement with China.
Of course, there were also core DPP followers, fighting tirelessly for national independence. Tsai was a link between these two grassroots sentiments, reconciling the popular aspiration for change with the decades-long struggle for democratic survival.
However, now that she is in power, Tsai is vulnerable to some serious challenges that might take some time to resolve.
The first challenge is a structural obstacle. For decades, many senior government bureaucrats and military officials have been affiliated with the KMT. It is a daunting task for Tsai to work with agencies that have been skeptical of, or even hostile to, the DPP.
The Tsai administration’s encounter with different bureaucratic bodies entails a cyclical process of learning and unlearning. While searching for common ground to make Taiwan shine again, both sides are still unlearning biases and erasing suspicions toward each other.
The second challenge has to do with China’s hostile campaign to isolate Taiwan, weaken its economy and exploit internal rifts within Taiwanese society. As China becomes more assertive in the international arena, it limits Taiwan’s participation in the global community.
Since Tsai took office on May 20, China has deprived Taiwan of the diplomatic successes that were gained by former president Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九).
Last month, China blocked Taiwan from attending the 39th assembly of the International Civil Aviation Organization in Montreal, Canada. Next month, the UN climate change agency is to only admit an Environmental Protection Administration official to a conference as an informal observer rather than an official representative.
Meanwhile, China employs the old revolutionary tactic of divide and rule to politicize tourism and humanistic exchanges across the Taiwan Strait. Exploiting the psychological fatigue of some Taiwanese who are suffering in a neoliberal economy, Beijing recently announced that it will allow Chinese tourists to visit eight KMT or independent-
administered areas — New Taipei City and Miaoli, Hsinchu, Nantou, Taitung, Hualien, Lienchiang and Kinmen counties.
When two young Hong Kong legislators visited Taiwan and shared their stories of political activism on a university campus, China and Hong Kong publicly warned Taiwan not to meddle in the territory’s affairs.
The developments reveal an aggressive strategy by Beijing to punish Taiwanese who support Tsai and other pro-independence lawmakers. The goal is to force Taiwan to accept a political union under the framework of “one country, two systems.”
Taiwan is trapped in a complex world fraught with uncertainties and rapid shifts in geopolitical, socioeconomic, technological and cultural spheres. Faced with these internal and external forces, Tsai needs a great deal of patience and wisdom to expand the nation’s limited diplomatic scope.
In her latest address to the DPP and in her Double Ten National Day speech, she said that Taiwan would never surrender its sovereignty under any external pressure and called on Beijing to communicate with Taipei over the future of cross-strait relations.
On the economic front, Tsai appears to be a rational, pragmatic, center-left stateswoman who understands that Taiwan’s fortunes rise and falls with global economic trends. The cross-strait trade is part of this larger picture.
Seeking to balance the quest for diplomatic recognition with the need to minimize the Chinese threat, she has been partnering with business sectors to look for new economic opportunities abroad.
In addition, keenly aware of the long-term problems of an aging society, she has redoubled efforts to empower the younger generation, and protect retirees and semi-skilled workers from the downsides of new trade policies.
As long as the Tsai administration forges a new domestic consensus among various professional, social and political groups, Taiwan should be able to survive and thrive in the current economic downturn.
Joseph Tse-hei Lee is professor of history at Pace University in New York.
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