Thu, Jul 28, 2016 page8

• Grand strategy a key test for Tsai

  • By Eric Chiou 邱奕宏
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  It has been about two months since President Tsai Ing-wen’s (蔡英文) inauguration. Her prudent political approach has earned her more plaudits than criticism. This recognition has come despite her low-profile style and various challenges on the domestic and international fronts, such as the accidental launching of a Hsiung Feng III missile and the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague’s controversial ruling on the South China Sea, which have tested her and her administration’s abilities to govern the nation.

  Irrefutably, two of the most undesirable phenomena in modern democracies are that politicians are frequently driven by the incessantly capricious tide of popular opinion and also by unexpected incidents. In a democratic society, politicians are expected to be receptive, empathetic and responsive to their domestic audiences.

  Hence, it is no surprise that they are generally forced to offer immediate and unsophisticated comments on some complex and deep-rooted issues.

  As politicians often unconsciously fall into the trap of myopic thinking and submit themselves to tumultuous bipartisan quarrels and knee-jerk reactions in an attempt to garner media exposure, they are likely to lose their abilities to formulate long-term visions and strategies for their national interests. It is an unfortunate outcome, since formulating a long-term strategy could be considered one of principal tasks that the electorate expects of its political representatives.

  In contrast with conventional outspoken and pompous politicians, Tsai’s characteristics of prudence and discretion are quite rare in Taiwan’s boisterous political environment. These features might not propel her to becoming a charismatic political star, but they could definitely enable her to guide the country in a forward-thinking and persistent way.

  More importantly, her pragmatism might enable her to clearly identify and prioritize the primary objectives for the nation and the most imperative tasks for the government, regardless of transient media spotlights and short-lived pubic attention.

  Since taking over as chairperson of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) years ago, Tsai’s cautious and low-key personality has made her distinct from other eloquent DPP veterans. Her modest, but determined approach has also helped her to win widespread support in January’s presidential election and a reputation for trustworthiness among Taiwanese.

  Without doubt, these unique political characteristics have proven to be valuable for her leadership. They will certainly pay off if Tsai can sagaciously employ those merits while guiding Taiwan in the correct direction without being sidetracked by intermittent domestic clamors or interrupted by sporadic external turbulence.

  During her term in office, Taiwan is likely to arrive at another historic turning point: It is time to contemplate Taiwan’s long-term, encompassing, and sustainable national strategy, given that the advent of the latest domestic mandate and the changing landscape in regional geopolitics often collide with each other.

  To ensure Taiwan’s political survival and economic sustainability in the face of a looming geopolitical crisis, the grand strategy should be grounded in its overall national interests, while fully taking the free will of Taiwanese into account.

  Amid China’s ascent and intensified rivalry between Beijing and Washington, as a small nation with geographical adjacency to and economic dependency on China, but political and security reliance on the US, Taiwan’s political leaders need to transcend inward-looking and short-term interests, while prudently assessing the dynamics of political-economic developments at global, regional and domestic levels when considering Taiwan’s grand strategy.

  A grand strategy is the means by which a state effectively utilizes its external environment by mobilizing like-minded states and making friendly alliances to create an advantageous strategic position to achieve its national goals and maximize its national interests. In other words, it is the strategy of making allies and deterring potential enemies for the sake of national security.

  It also implies cultivating a favorable environment and wisely arranging, preserving and distributing limited resources to its most productive areas in pursuit of sustainable economic prosperity.

  In the foreseeable future, developments at three levels are likely to pose significant challenges to Tsai’s administration. At the global level, one of the most important trends for Taiwan is whether declining US influence and an ascending China eventually results in a power shift in the global political arena.

  Some of the key indicators to observe will be whether US foreign policy retreats from active internationalism to passive isolationism, and whether Beijing further strengthens its assertive military policy, while sustaining a moderate pace of economic growth and maintaining political stability.

  At the regional level, what is likely to be vital to Taiwan is whether Washington has the will to uphold its security commitments and maintain US military supremacy in East Asia. Any sign of US withdrawal would inevitably lead to regional instability, which might increase the likelihood of military conflict on the Korean Peninsula and exacerbate armed confrontations in the East and South China seas.

  In addition, the political vacuum in East Asia that would be caused by the departure of US troops would significantly undermine the balance of power and open a window of opportunity for potential revisionist states — such as North Korea and China — to pursue reckless expansionist policies, which might put Taiwan’s survival in jeopardy, with the shadow of China’s military looming.

  On the economic front, whether China’s latest grand strategy, the “One Belt One Road” initiative, ultimately contributes to the realization of a Sinocentric sphere of influence, is pivotal to Taiwan as it contemplates its long-term economic blueprint. Given the intensified economic integration among various trading blocs in recent years, it is essential for Taiwan to find a way out of the stalemate of its economic isolation, in order to safeguard its economic sustainability and reduce its vulnerability to Beijing’s economic assaults.

  At the domestic level, the critical tests for Tsai’s administration are whether it can free Taiwan’s economy from stagnation, revamp the judicial system and implement transitional justice.

  Since these challenges are intertwined and interact with one another, decisionmakers need to establish a coherent strategic framework across various levels and ensure its support, coordination and consistency.

  In addition, as a grand strategy must encompass national interests, it is vital that decisionmakers are able to clearly distinguish primary national interests from secondary ones, so as to properly furnish policy priorities with the necessary resources and effort.

  In short, Taiwan’s grand strategy at the global level should be able to project and predict the possible strategic trajectory of major powers, so as to locate Taiwan’s best strategic position. At the regional level, Taiwan should reinforce strategic engagements with allies and cultivate mutually beneficial relationships with its Southeast Asian neighbors, while avoiding any unnecessary provocations that might irritate Beijing.

  At the domestic level, despite social issues and a deep-rooted economic malady that are unlikely to find easy cures, policymakers should refrain from political speculation or resorting to a shortsighted solution at the expense of the public’s long-term welfare.

  Confidence in Tsai’s administration will hinge on how it implements reforms on judicial justice, social pensions, transitional justice, economic inequality, etc. Appointing reform-minded officials to lead the government would definitely send strong signals to the domestic audience, while signifying robust political determination.

  The administration’s performances on economic and social reforms are likely to be the key battlefields for public support. Only when the government can effectively consolidate sufficient support domestically can it build a solid foundation and accumulate abundant resources to exercise on the diplomatic front. After prudently laying out strategic objectives and policy priorities, leaders should double down where Taiwan can actually make significant differences, while preventing domestic quarrels or accidents from deviating the implementation of a grand strategy.

  The means and ends of the grand strategy should be carefully calibrated to ensure their consistency and coordination, while the elements of the strategy should be appropriately transformed, enmeshed and implemented into domestic policies.

  Last but not least, how decisionmakers recruit the brainpower needed to contemplate a grand strategy to a large extent presages the final success or failure of the project. To ensure the political vision and feasibility of a grand strategy, political leaders need to carefully strike a balance between establishment policymakers and reformers.

  Most importantly, it is destructive if political leaders seek policy prescriptions and advice from phony political pundits and fence-sitting opportunists, and if Tsai’s administration does this, it would be no different from committing a four-year political suicide.

  To not disappoint the earnest expectations of Taiwanese, Tsai’s administration should keep fully alert and seize this hard-earned opportunity to create a better future by developing Taiwan’s long-term and comprehensive grand strategy.

  Eric Chiou is an assistant professor at National Chiao Tung University who specializes in international political economy and international relations.
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