After Tuesday’s Indiana primary, it seems inevitable that in the presidential election in November, Americans will choose between Donald Trump and Hillary Rodham Clinton.
It was not always this way. Last summer, Trump was dismissed by some experts as “not a real candidate,” with a 2 percent chance of winning the Republican Party’s nomination. And although Clinton has been the Democratic frontrunner since announcing her bid in April last year, that a former first lady is running at all is still no small surprise.
The question now looming is which candidate can make it all the way to the White House.
Making predictions about November in May might be asking for trouble, but by some metrics it looks like Trump’s luck might be up. When polls have asked voters to imagine a scenario in which they must choose between Trump and Clinton, most have said they would choose Clinton.
Since May last year, 67 polls have pitted the two candidates against one another. In 58 such polls, respondents chose Clinton over Trump. Three polls found the two candidates tied and six gave Trump the win — on average by less than 4 percentage points.
However, polling averages show the gap changing considerably. In July last year it was vast — Clinton by 20 percentage points; in January it was small — Clinton by 3 percentage points. Currently, there are 6.5 percentage points between the two. That gap will no doubt continue to change.
Imagining who would lose the Nov. 8 election is sometimes harder than imagining who would win. The primary season can warp perceptions.
Candidates have a string of wins under their belts by the time they secure the nominations — in this case, Trump has won 28 states and Clinton 25. However, those wins might not seem quite so glorious when you attempt to distinguish the popularity of winning candidates from the unpopularity of their rivals.
Since June last year, for example, more Americans have said they have an unfavorable opinion of Trump — on average 60 percent — than a favorable opinion — 35 percent.
Trump’s unpopularity has been pretty consistent. Often, when he appears to catch Clinton in national polling it is not so much about a Trump surge as a Clinton dip. And since November last year, similar polling for the former secretary of state has found that respondents are less inclined to say they have a favorable opinion of her.
Clinton’s falling popularity has been so steady that last month she was considered more unfavorable than favorable: just like Trump.
That conclusion — that neither of the two candidates Americans would probably have to choose between are viewed favorably by the majority of those Americans — is important. It could affect turnout, especially if there is a particular lack of enthusiasm in one party.
Turnout at primaries has been high — almost double 2012, according to Pew Research Center. Among Republicans, primary turnout has risen from 9.8 percent in 2012 to 17.3 percent. Democratic turnout has increased from 6.3 percent to 11.7 percent, although four years ago US President Barack Obama did not face a serious challenger. If Trump can convince more people to show up, he could close the gap.
There is another thing Trump will have to do: Win over voters who do not identify as Republican. There are a lot of them. The percentage of Americans who describe themselves as independent is at a record high: According to Gallup, which has conducted polls on voter identification since 1988, 42 percent of respondents say they are independent while 29 percent say they are Democratic and 26 percent Republican.
Understanding the demographics of Trump and Clinton’s supporters can offer important clues about who they need to attract. A recent poll from CNN/ORC found that people who said Trump was their first choice for president were more likely to be male, white or older.
Of those who described themselves as “independent,” 42 percent said Trump was their first choice. When asked if they were “enthusiastic” about the prospect of Trump being nominee, 32 percent of independents said they were and 33 percent said they were “satisfied but not enthusiastic.” The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percent.
When CNN/ORC conducted the poll, between Friday last week and Sunday, they also asked those 1,001 adults — 890 of whom were registered voters — about Clinton. Her supporters were more likely to be female, urban or have an income of more than US$50,000 per year.
Many such findings about Trump and Clinton supporters have been borne out by exit polling during the primary season.
At this early stage of gazing into the crystal ball, a couple of things seem possible. Clinton will need to continue to appeal to women and older voters — not least because those groups are more likely to cast a ballot on election day.
However, the non-white vote will also become a more focused issue. When 31 percent of the US electorate is not white and there is only a 6 percent gap between candidates, it is clear how important such voters could be.
Ultimately, though, there is only one thing Clinton needs to do to win the White House in November: make herself less unpopular than Trump.
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