Last month’s presidential and legislative elections resulted in an unprecedented defeat for the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT). However, considering the effects of the elections on the nation’s future and the rapid growth of antipathy toward China among Taiwanese — including the younger generation, who are more likely to favor independence — against the backdrop of a rising China, the biggest loser is probably Beijing.
Since 1996, when the first presidential election was held, on the surface the battle has been between the pan-blue and the pan-green camps. Beijing could not resist getting involved, either by pushing cross-strait relations to the top of the agenda, or through more direct interference.
Beijing was quite clear about which party it supported four years ago, partly because cross-strait exchanges had begun after President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) took office in 2008 — in line with then-Chinese president Hu Jintao’s (胡錦濤) policy to develop peaceful relations — and partly because Ma refrained from criticizing Beijing during his first term in office. Beijing acknowledged the so-called “1992 consensus” and mobilized Taiwanese businesspeople operating in China to return home to vote, while pressuring some of them, such as HTC chairwoman Cher Wang (王雪紅), to support the “1992 consensus.” As a result, Beijing’s strategy of playing the economy worked and it succeeded in influencing the election outcome, giving Ma his second term in office.
However, public opinion over Ma’s policies promoting peace across the Strait and integrating Taiwan’s economy with China’s began to shift after the 2014 Sunflower movement took place. Approval gradually turned into disapproval. Taiwanese worried that with China’s rise and the integration of the two economies, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) might use its power to intervene in Taiwan’s political autonomy and social values.
The shift in public opinion took Beijing by surprise. For 30 years, China had been trying to win the hearts of Taiwanese, but could not find a way to do it, then through trial and error it discovered the power of money. This method eventually failed, because as China grew stronger, the CCP became more authoritarian and opposed democratic ideas, causing Taiwanese to lose faith in Beijing.
Managers and stakeholders of Hong Kong’s Mighty Current publishing house and Causeway Bay Books, which sells political books that Beijing finds “sensitive,” have vanished, and K-pop singer Chou Tzu-yu (周子瑜) was forced to give an apology on the eve of this year’s elections. These two incidents are the tip of the iceberg regarding Hong Konge’s and Taiwanese relations with China, but they put the finishing touches on the election campaigns of Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) and the DPP.
Beijing’s 30-year cross-strait policy has been to achieve two goals: Persuade a higher percentage of Taiwanese to support unification and influence Taiwanese to be more like Chinese. However, polls show Taiwanese are increasingly unwilling to unify with China or identify as Chinese.
With the number of young, pro-independence Taiwanese increasing, Beijing has little room for optimism. After using the economy lost traction, Beijing ran out of ways to win the hearts of Taiwanese. The only alternative for it is to undergo domestic reform and transform China into a liberal democracy.
However, the CCP still puts its faith in power, as shown by its oppression of the democratic movements in Hong Kong. Evidently, reform is the last thing the CCP wants.
John Lim is an associate research fellow at Academia Sinica’s Institute of Modern History and an adjunct associate professor at National Taiwan University.
Translated by Ethan Zhan
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