So it begins. Perhaps unexpectedly. It had been argued that the China issue would leap out when the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) won the elections. Before and just after the election it was suggested that the China issue would once again flood Taiwan’s political process if either the DPP in government began to push too hard at the notion of the “status quo” or if Beijing began to trigger conflict through overt interference in Taiwan’s domestic politics.
What has actually happened is that President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九), in the last months of his waning power, has set a scene for conflict by a sudden interest in Itu Aba Island (Taiping Island, 太平島). This grandstanding is ludicrous and obvious.
The key statement for escalation was that of Presidential Office spokesman Charles Chen (陳以信), who said: “Taiping Island is an inherent part of the Republic of China’s territory.”
The military drills of Wednesday represent the key action. There would follow a host of statements to inflame the situation and keep the international media in ferment.
To argue the new importance of Itu Aba through the incident that took place weeks ago when Coast Guard Administration vessels escorted a Vietnamese fishing boat away from the island, part of the Spratly Islands (Nansha Islands, 南沙群島) claimed by Taiwan, China, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia and Brunei, is not even partially convincing — small disputes or antagonisms of the sort have been common for years.
That with yesterday’s scheduled visit Itu Aba, Ma has aimed at an international audience as well as instant domestic attention suggests that he is risking Taiwan’s international status as well as its internal democratic processes for the sake of a “Ma-chine” grandstand is outrageous.
There is still time for the DPP to create its own sound bites that are more sensible and do-able.
However, they must be done now and it must be emphasized that the DPP is the coming government, those who Taiwanese must look to for responsible policies.
First, the position of most Taiwanese appears to be that no immediate solution of the Chinese relationship is possible and thus some version — perhaps modified — of the “status quo” is what is wanted and what the DPP was elected to develop.
Second, that the DPP has a series of domestic commercial and social policies that are designed to continue Taiwan’s democratic prosperity as an independent economic system — linked to China, but not dependent upon it.
These two tactics of intention should be iterated widely and repeatedly. What president-elect Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) should not be doing is trying to match Ma in a game of heroic rhetoric.
Instead, Tsai might go for a third strategy. She could make a statement about the territorial issue, but in an informed and restricted way. This could take off sensibly with the earlier public statement from China that it has no intention of immediate military domination of the waters.
The DPP should not go for a whole solution, for it does not exist. Tsai and her people must now make the most of a bad job.
The international media have all so far used the early news from the South China Sea to stipulate how the DPP is anti-China and the KMT is China-friendly, with little informed reference to history — they seem not to know that at one time the Republic of China Constitution was based on the proposition of an attack by Taiwan on China with the intent to take over that nation, or of the compromises already absorbed before and during the last election.
They also abruptly refer to Itu Aba as the “self-claimed territory of Taiwan.”
So the scene is set for Taiwan to lose the battle in international eyes as well as endanger its political status and damage internal political debate.
This is not a very good issue for Tsai to exercise her new muscles upon. As is well known abroad, Taiwan has expanded an airstrip on the island, improved its defense capabilities, established a solar-powered lighthouse, sent various ministers over and clearly shown signs of encroachment. These can all be used to Taiwan’s detriment. This would especially be so if Tsai takes up a militant stance.
Tsai needs to address Taiwanese as well as the outside world in a mature and systematic manner. Commit to everything positive that can be done in the near future. Commit to nothing that cannot be done. Commit over a longer term to the complex matter of China relations, but more quietly and with a lot of thought.
Ian Inkster is a professorial research associate at the Centre of Taiwan Studies, SOAS, University of London, and editor of the History of Technology.
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