The candidates running in the nation’s 14th presidential and ninth legislative election have started registering their names. Two main discussion points are whether the nation would be seeing a third successful transition of power and whether the makeup of the Legislative Yuan would be significantly altered following the elections.
Since the second complete re-election of the legislature in 1992, it has remained fundamentally stable, with the pan-blue camp having a majority over the pan-green camp, despite two transitions of power.
However, given last year’s Sunflower movement and the Chinese Nationalist Party’s (KMT) rout in the nine-in-one local elections, many voters might switch their allegiance in the legislative elections next month and cause a realignment of political parties in the legislature.
Will there be a tectonic shift in the political makeup of the legislature, one which sees, for the first time, an absolute majority for the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), or at least a combined absolute majority for an alliance consisting of the DPP and smaller parties?
An outcome such as this would have profound repercussions for Taiwanese politics and its importance would be no less significant than the third transition of power from the presidential election.
There are numerous emerging “third force” political parties entering the fray in the legislative elections, and it would be fascinating to watch whether their participation could break the two-party deadlock.
The mixed-member majoritarian hybrid electoral system, in which 73 legislators — 65 percent of the total seats — are elected in single-member constituencies, does not favor small parties. In this system, unless one of the larger parties decides not to run in a given constituency to give candidates of small parties a fighting chance, or enters into an alliance with them, there is very little chance of candidates from small parties being elected. Also, large parties are unlikely to stand aside in a dead certain constituency, meaning small parties are even less likely to be elected.
The supplementary system by which the remaining 35 percent of the legislative seats are allocated to legislators-at-large comes with a 5 percent threshold. That is, a party must receive 5 percent of the national vote in order to qualify. It is a threshold that is not an easy one to pass for most parties. This, coupled with the rule that emerging parties must field at least 10 district candidates before they can submit a list of legislator-at-large candidates, means that they need to find 10 dutiful candidates who understand that they will essentially end up as cannon fodder. Even then, whether standing for specific constituencies or as legislators-at-large, each candidate must pay a deposit of NT$200,000 (US$6,092) — a total cost of at least NT$2 million or NT$3 million, which is a large sum of money for a small parties.
Furthermore, Taiwan does not have a dual candidacy system such as that found in other nations with hybrid systems, such as Germany, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea. In that system, candidates can stand for specific constituencies and appear on a nomination list for legislator-at-large at the same time. In the event that they are elected in the constituency in which they are standing, their name is automatically removed from the legislators-at-large list and the remaining names on the list are moved up.
The dual candidacy system is extremely important for small political parties with few members and a lack of popular candidates. That Taiwan does not follow this system contributes to the woes of small parties struggling to survive.
Given the constraints of the current system, the most important approach for small parties would be to do all they can to remind the electorate to divide their vote: That is, to call on voters to use their party vote for a small party, regardless of which presidential or legislative candidate they vote for. The number of voters who end up taking this approach are to be crucial for a third force or an emerging party.
Although the coming legislative elections might change the stable framework of a pan-blue majority and a pan-green minority that has existed over the past 20 years, the chances of a dramatic transformation from the two-party system to a multiparty system are pretty slim.
It might be possible for a third force or an emerging party to secure a small number of district seats, and perhaps a small number of minority parties might be able to pass the 5 percent threshold required to be assigned legislator-at-large seats, but the likely result would still be a two-party system in the legislature, and the nation would be stuck with the politics of two majority parties.
Wang Yeh-lih is a professor of political science at National Taiwan University.
Translated by Paul Cooper
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