That nascent political parties have only a 10 percent chance of winning a seat in January’s legislative elections might sound abrasive to supporters of the “third force” — and more so to the parties’ members — but Taipei Mayor Ko Wen-je’s (柯文哲) brutally honest forecast for the election serves as a cautionary reminder of the harsh reality of Taiwan’s political life.
Over the past three decades, politics in Taiwan has been dominated by the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) — who together hold the lion’s share of legislative seats — with remaining seats divided among second-tier parties like the Taiwan Solidarity Union and People First Party, and a small group of rich and powerful independent politicians.
Despite the widespread publicity that the third force has received as of late, it would be a daunting task for any small party to change the “status quo,” as the outcome of the nine-in-one elections on Nov. 29 last year proved, not to mention a dozen new parties competing against one another in the January polls, diffusing the “force.”
At a forum with Social Democratic Party (SDP) convener Fan Yun (范雲) on Sunday, Ko gave a fitting description of Taiwanese voters’ behavior, saying he did not even recognize KMT Legislator Chiang Nai-shin (蔣乃辛) — who represents Taipei’s Daan District (大安) — until Sunday.
It is true that many people vote for the party they most relate to, while having only a vague idea of who the politician is that they are voting for, or what that politician has done. As a result of bipartisan politics, the candidate who wins the election is usually from the KMT or the DPP. This phenomenon makes it extremely difficult for a young political party to win seats in the legislature.
To have a better shot at gaining access to the legislature, members of the third force should put aside their differences and cooperate to consolidate their support base and boost their influence.
For instance, Fan and New Power Party (NPP) Chairman Huang Kuo-chang (黃國昌) were comrades during their time in the Taiwan Citizens’ Union, but later split to form their respective parties.
The SDP understands the importance of leveraging influence, which is why it has formed an alliance with the Green Party Taiwan. However, that only prompts the question: “How much would their campaigns benefited if the three parties had formed a coalition?”
Ko also told Sunday’s forum that the third force — which began to take shape during the Sunflower movement in the spring of last year — would probably “dissipate” because his election had provided a channel for Taiwanese voters to “vent their spleen” about the central government’s administration.
His remark cast a chill, as the room was full of people who were there because they cared about the future of the third force.
Fan might have wanted Ko to say something nice about her party at the forum, as he has done for some NPP candidates, but instead he provided a bleak outlook to the future of young political parties.
Ko’s unreserved remarks apparently worried Fan — she went so far as to publicly ask him if he would vote for her — and surely riled supporters of the third force.
Fan might wish that she had never asked Ko to attend the forum, but given time to reflect on the mayor’s remarks, she might find that Ko has actually done the third force a favor. If he had acted diplomatic and talked up the parties’ chances of winning, the forum would have been meaningless.
At the very least, Ko’s honesty has given a warning and some direction to the third force — he might end up having helped them refine their endeavors.
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