The Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) faces the risk of a sharp decline. Party heavyweights are unwilling to run for the presidency and the party is likely be left with Deputy Legislative Speaker Hung Hsiu-chu (洪秀柱) as its presidential candidate. No one is upbeat about the party’s chances in January’s presidential election and the nomination of legislative candidates is proving even more difficult.
The party has only just started the process, but already several lawmakers with strong support in central and southern Taiwan have announced their unwillingness to run on a KMT ticket.
Former KMT legislator Chang Sho-wen (張碩文) has said that he is leaving the party; Legislator Cheng Ru-fen (鄭汝芬), who represents Changhua County, has turned down a nomination; Legislator Chang Chia-chun (張嘉郡) from Yunlin County has announced her intent to leave the party and run as an independent, and Taipei City Councilor Lee Ching-yuan (李慶元), former New Party lawmaker, might return there or throw his lot in with the People First Party (PFP).
There are two forces at work behind this wave of defections. One is a thrust away from the KMT, consisting of those who lack confidence in the party’s future. Public dislike of the party far exceeds positive sentiment, so rather than representing the KMT in the elections, politicians are seeking to run as independents, with the support of local factions, since that would also rid them of all the KMT’s negative baggage. Many in the party also disagree with the road toward hasty unification represented by Hung’s “one country, same interpretation” proposal, which is even more extreme than President Ma Ying-jeou’s (馬英九) goal of eventual unification. They would rather run as independents than stand in opposition to mainstream public opinion.
Because the KMT has lost Taiwan’s trust, many predict that the wave of defections from the party is not going to be an isolated phenomena, but is the beginning of a trend. It is only normal that politicians curry favor with those in power and many people only jumped on the KMT bandwagon after Ma won the 2008 presidential election. Now his fortunes have turned and it should not be surprising to see them leaving a sinking ship.
The other force at work is that, while the New Party, the PFP, the Alliance of Independent Lawmakers or even the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) might not have as much money and resources as the KMT, votes are more attractive than money. This is causing many KMT members who were once members of the PFP or the New Party to return to their old parties.
The flock of departures points toward a splintering of the KMT, and there might arise a repetition of the situation following former president Chen Shui-bian’s (陳水扁) win over independent candidate James Soong (宋楚瑜) and then-vice president Lien Chan (連戰) of the KMT in the 2000 presidential race, which would be a boost for DPP presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) in January. However, if defectors flock to the PFP, they would improve founder and chairman Soong’s possible presidential bid and could attract swing voters. Since there is an overlap between the PFP and the DPP in this voter group, this could have a negative impact on Tsai’s prospects.
The KMT has so far only resorted to threats to deal with the wave of departures, saying that members who announce their intent to leave and run as independents will be referred to the Evaluation and Disciplinary Committee. However, verbal threats are unlikey stop people from leaving, and unless KMT Chairman Eric Chu (朱立倫) takes a more sincere approach, making more substantive promises, or amends Hung’s unification policy to match mainstream public opinion, the KMT will not only lose the presidency, but also its legislative majority.
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