Coming under pressure from the US and China recently to clarify her stance on cross-strait relations, Democratic Progressive Party Chairperson and presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) has said that she wants to maintain the “status quo” for the time being.
The coming three months will bring major changes to military strategy and the economic landscape in the Asia-Pacific region. Tsai’s proposal to maintain the “status quo” will help Taiwan gain a strategically secure position from which to quietly observe these changes.
When it comes to future changes in military strategy in the Asia-Pacific, the US military has been the main guarantor of Taiwan’s security since the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) lost the Chinese Civil War and retreated to Taiwan.
This was the case during the 823 Artillery Bombardment of Kinmen in 1958, when Taiwan’s M115 8-inch howitzers were supplied by the US Marine Corps, and during the Third Taiwan Strait Crisis from 1995 to 1996, when then-US president Bill Clinton ordered two US carrier battle groups into the region, with one sailing through the Taiwan Strait.
However, after Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe lifted the Japanese ban on collective self-defense last year, there is a possibility that Japan could join in the US military defense of Taiwan.
Japan’s ruling coalition parties, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Komeito, last month reached an agreement on amending laws regulating Japan’s right to collective self-defense, confirming that if the US military is attacked in the vicinity of Japan, the Japan Self-Defense Forces can join the US military in a counterattack.
Since the LDP–Komeito coalition holds a majority in both houses of the Diet, any bill that these two parties agree upon is likely to be ratified by parliament. To avoid affecting the results in Japan’s upcoming county commissioner election, the collective self-defense bill — which could have quite an impact on voters — will be sent to the parliament in May, by which time details of a US-Japan coalition defense of Taiwan will become clear.
From the perspective of the economic situation in the Asia-Pacific, the US and Japan are taking the lead in the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) free-trade bloc. The consensus between the US and Japan will determine the game rules.
US-Japan trade negotiations are nearing completion, and the most difficult deadlock over the deregulation of Japanese agricultural imports has been generally resolved. As long as the US Congress renews the Trade Promotion Authority, giving the president fast-track negotiating authority for trade agreements, the administration of US President Barack Obama will have the authority to conclude negotiations.
Generally speaking, the authority is very likely to be passed by Congress, primarily because the US Republican Party holds majorities in the Senate and the House of Representatives, and the party is generally supportive of free trade. Obama is a Democrat, so he should be able to muster some support from his party legislators.
Moreover, China has recently been successful in winning over US allies in western Europe for its establishment of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, causing a sense of crisis in the US and a fear of losing its global leadership. This might be conducive to the creation of the TPP.
The US has used the passage of the authority to force Japan to compromise on auto part export tariffs. Hence, it might still take a while before the authority is passed. However, the US has also made it very clear that by the second half of this year, the focus of US politics will be on next year’s US presidential election. If the authority has not been enacted by then, the TPP might fail. It can therefore be estimated that the US is likely to complete trade talks by June at the latest, at which time the TPP is likely to be established.
US-Japanese military and economic strategy should be very clear by the time Tsai visits the US in June. Until then, Taiwan’s best choice will be to maintain the “status quo” and see what happens.
Maintaining the cross-strait “status quo” is basically in the US’ interest, but when these big changes in the Asia-Pacific take place, Tsai might not be able to keep the US satisfied simply by saying that she will maintain the “status quo.”
A recent congressional delegation to Taiwan pressed Tsai for her views on US pork imports. Since Japan opened up its pork market in exchange for joining the TPP, this is tantamount to asking how Taiwan will respond to the US’ inquiries.
Perhaps the real question that Tsai will have to answer when she visits the US is how Taiwan will position itself within the US’ and Japan’s economic and military attempts to restrain China.
Guo Yung-hsing is an associate professor in the Department of International Trade at National Taichung University of Science and Technology.
Translated by Ethan Zhan
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