Tue, Jan 27, 2015 page9

• Underlying human behavior reveals scientific secrets

  History shows us that social scientists are essential if we are to get the most out of our engineering and technological innovations

  • By Jonathan Michie / The Guardian
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  Governments across the world tend — perhaps increasingly — to point to the importance of the so-called “STEM” subjects of science, technology, engineering and math. Global economic competitiveness is the aim, with innovation being seen as one of the drivers.

  However, are these assumptions and conclusions correct and justified, and could the social sciences play a greater role in enabling us to reach our economic and societal potential?

  Science and technology have played key roles in the success of economic development throughout the ages. Germany’s export surpluses in manufactured goods have long been built upon engineering excellence. The great global challenges such as climate change clearly require scientific excellence to understand and analyze the problems, and to develop appropriate responses.

  

  Illustration: Yusha

  I should declare an interest — I’ve always been a great fan of the sciences: My late mother (Anne McLaren) was a geneticist who, among other things, undertook early research behind in vitro fertilization (IVF), and my late father (Donald Michie) was a code-breaker at Bletchley Park during World War II, who went on to become a pioneer of artificial intelligence and machine learning.

  My university department (of continuing education) includes Oxford’s professor of the public understanding of science.

  However, let’s consider the above scientific developments.

  Firstly, the importance of “national systems of innovation” was identified, analyzed and described by Chris Freeman — a social scientist. It was his understanding of how different aspects of the economic, political and social structures worked together and interlinked that was key. This includes the educational system, the financial system and the political and regulatory system and institutions. And those institutions are staffed by people, whose behavior and interactions play a key role in how those institutions work, and what effect they will have on economic growth.

  Likewise with regulation — the social aspects are key. So the science and technology cannot — or certainly should not — be separated from the political and institutional framework and influences. These latter require social sciences to analyze the processes involved, and to inform appropriate policy development and application.

  Similarly with IVF, it cannot be understood as a scientific development in isolation. Its use is regulated. In the UK it was the Warnock Commission that advised on appropriate regulation, and not only was this not an exclusively scientific endeavor, on the contrary, Anne McLaren was actually the only scientist on the commission.

  In terms of code-breaking, I came across a fascinating example recently of how engineering cannot be understood in isolation. It is well known that the German code was broken when a message was repeated without the Enigma Machine (which translated the message into code) being reset. It was vital that the machine be reset after each transmission. Resending a message without resetting gave crucial clues that enabled the code to be broken.

  I was recently sent an interview with my late father in which he was asked about the code-breaking at Bletchley Park. Interestingly, he pointed out that it would have been a simple task to have engineered the Enigma Machine to prevent it being able to send a new message until, and unless, it was reset. In other words, there could have been an engineering solution, which would have prevented the code from being broken. A simple task — particularly given Germany’s engineering excellence.

  Indeed, one might expect that very engineering excellence to have led naturally to an engineering solution being considered and applied. Why wasn’t it?

  Donald Michie’s explanation was that while Germany was excellent at engineering, they were also great believers in discipline, and perhaps most especially military discipline. If the Enigma Machine had to be reset after each transmission, then those would be the orders. Such orders would surely be followed, the machine would be reset, and there would be no problem in need of a solution.

  Whether or not this answer to the puzzle is correct, there is no doubt that what needs to be explained is human behavior — not just engineering.

  The clear conclusion is that to understand any of these issues requires an understanding of human behavior, whether they be consumers, employees, soldiers, managers or regulators; and also the behavior of people collectively, within organizations — whether these be companies, armies, universities or regulatory authorities. Such understanding comes from the social sciences.

  Thus, IVF involves the medical science, but also the regulatory and legislative environment. Armies depend on orders being issued and obeyed, alongside engineering solutions regarding both armaments and code-making and breaking.

  The social sciences are necessary to analyze and understand these social processes, and to develop appropriate policies — corporate and public — to utilize our scientific and engineering knowledge to best effect. There can be no doubt that the social sciences matter.

  Jonathan Michie is professor of innovation and knowledge exchange at Kellogg College, University of Oxford.
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