In the face of poor governance by the President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) administration of the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT), it seems the main opposition, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), has the upper hand in the upcoming local elections.
However, the latest poll released by the Taiwan Brain Trust suggests that the DPP should not be too optimistic about the results of the elections.
While most polls in Taiwan, including the DPP’s own survey, predict the DPP will win at least nine out of 22 seats in the mayoral and governorship elections, numbers from the Taiwan Brain Trust polling reveal a potential weakness of the DPP in broadening its electoral support.
In theory, the mayoral and governorship elections should be more candidate-centered. In reality, since the upcoming elections also involve lower-level elections, a political party’s image and organization skills constitute an important factor. Therefore, party support will also account for voters’ choices.
According to the Taiwan Brain Trust survey, as the election lead-up heats up, more undecided voters are revealing their preference. In the same survey conducted in June, 52.8 percent of the respondents had not decided who to vote for. The number has dropped to 39.4 percent this month. The KMT has benefited with 4 percent growth in party support. The DPP remains the same. Other preferences have gone to the independent candidates. Even if the Taiwan Brain Trust poll shows 29.4 percent of people believe the DPP will win seven to 10 seats in addition to the six it holds, there is still 29.8 percent of respondents who have refused to express their voting preference.
As more voters reveal their choices, there have been more people expressing their like or dislike of the parties. Approval rate for the KMT is 23.6 percent while approval rate for the DPP is 27.3 percent.
However, the dissatisfaction against the KMT does not automatically translate into more support for the DPP.
Furthermore, according to Taiwan Brain Trust’s trend survey, the dislike rate for the DPP has been steadily increasing (from 11.1 percent in January to 19.2 percent this month). Even after DPP Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) resumed in June, the relatively low support for the DPP remains unchanged. Tsai remains popular, especially among young people. However, her own popularity has not successfully elevated the DPP.
Recent incidents related to gas explosions and flooding in DPP-governed Greater Kaohsiung and Greater Tainan respectively have sabotaged the high support rate of DPP heavyweight mayors Chen Chu (陳菊) and William Lai (賴清德).
If Chen and Lai mismanage the post-disaster relief works or continue to make mistakes, the DPP might lose more votes in its strongholds. The DPP’s over-confidence in elections may result in negligence. It may also boost the KMT’s unity.
As the KMT controls administrative resources and enjoys more media advantages, it will definitely try to dictate the campaign agenda.
For example, understanding his government’s failure to perform well on domestic policies, Ma has been playing up the cross-strait card by pointing his finger at the DPP for overlooking the fact that Taiwan has been lagging behind the free-trade agreement (FTA) negotiation between China and South Korea. The KMT has also been labeling the DPP as a destructive force in the Legislative Yuan for consistently blocking the cross-strait service and trade agreement as well as the free economic pilot zone bill. Such a smear campaign works, as manifested by the increase in public dislike of the DPP.
Finally, the potential effects of vote-buying and last-minute dirty tricks should not be discounted. With all the variables mentioned above, there is no room for the DPP to be optimistic about the elections.
How can the DPP manage those negative elements?
The poll demonstrated that the economy (68.5 percent), government efficiency (43.9 percent), social justice (30.5 percent) and cross-strait relations (23.8 percent) are four major issues that voters care most about. The DPP should frame the debate of the elections by presenting feasible policy platforms to the voters.
From a campaign perspective, it is natural for the KMT to highlight the blue-green division to prevent light-blue voters from supporting DPP candidates.
Nevertheless, this serves to accelerate the deterioration of Taiwan’s political culture along partisan lines and ethnic divisions.
After more than two decades of blue-green political wrestling, Taiwanese voters are craving new leaders with bold and realistic agendas, coupled with the skill to communicate and persuade.
Most importantly, most voters expect new political leaders who can deliver on their campaign promises and refrain from using partisan divisions to distract from poor governance.
This is the true meaning of the upcoming elections.
Liu Shih-chung is president of the Taipei-based Taiwan Brain Trust.
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