The bloodshed in Iraq and Syria is being watched keenly in China. Indeed, the greater Middle East is becoming an ever greater focus of Chinese foreign policy.
At the recent China-Arab States Cooperation Forum, held in Beijing, Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) called upon his Arab counterparts to upgrade their strategic relationships with China, by deepening bilateral cooperation in areas ranging from finance and energy to space technology.
This reflects China’s broader goal — established partly in response to the US’ “pivot” toward Asia — of rebalancing its own strategic focus westward, with an emphasis on the Arab world.
Of course, economic ties between China and Arab countries have been growing stronger for more than a decade, with total trade volume increasing from US$25.5 billion in 2004 to US$238.9 billion last year. China is now the Arab world’s second-largest trading partner, and the largest trading partner for nine Arab countries. Within 10 years, the volume of China-Arab trade is expected to reach US$600 billion. Engineering contracts and investment have also enhanced ties.
Under Xi’s leadership, China is attempting to reshape its relationships with Arab countries according to its new “march West” strategic framework. The most notable component of this strategy is the “Silk Road economic belt,” which is to run along the ancient Central Asian Silk Road and the modern maritime Silk Road — an initiative promoted heavily by Xi at the recent meeting in Beijing.
This effort highlights China’s goal of establishing hub-and-spoke relationships with key developing economies around it. To this end, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang (李克強) has proposed an economic corridor linking China to Pakistan, and has spoken of other corridors running through Bangladesh, India and Myanmar.
Energy has been a key factor in economic ties with the Arab world. From 2004 to last year, China’s crude oil imports from Arab countries grew by more than 12 percent annually, on average, reaching 133 million tonnes per year. China’s march west strategy furthers its goal of safeguarding access to these resources. As the director of the State Council’s Development Research Center, Li Wei (李維), pointed out in February, at the current rate China will be consuming 800 million tonnes of oil annually and importing 75 percent of its petroleum by 2030.
China’s trajectory contrasts sharply with that of the US, where the rapid growth in the output of shale oil and gas, together with energy-saving measures, has brought energy independence closer than ever. In fact, according to the US Energy Information Administration, China surpassed the US as the world’s largest net oil importer earlier this year.
The US is also gradually disengaging strategically from the greater Middle East, creating a vacuum that China seeks to fill. To succeed, China will need to become more attentive to the region’s complex dynamics; find creative ways to participate in conflict-resolution; and respond enthusiastically to Middle Eastern governments’ growing desire to connect with Asia.
Doing so would enable China’s leaders to advance the goal of developing vast inland regions. Specifically, western provinces like Ningxia and Qinghai, which have substantial Muslim communities, could benefit from deeper links with Arab economies.
Enhanced influence in the Arab world would also promote the perception of China as a leader of developing countries — a position that could boost China’s strategic and economic resilience considerably. It would enable China to capitalize on the demographics of the developing world, which is expected to house more than 80 percent of the world’s population by 2020. Moreover, it would allow China to maximize its gains from burgeoning trade among developing economies, which surged from 8 percent of global trade in 1990 to 24 percent in 2011.
However, not all Arab governments are welcoming China with open arms. Indeed, many of the Middle East’s most powerful actors — including Turkey and Saudi Arabia — are suspicious of China’s long-term intentions.
However, China can take steps to gain trust. China’s leaders should work to address the unrest in the Muslim-dominated province of Xinjiang more effectively.
China’s march West into the Arab world is a bold effort to translate its economic might into enduring regional — and, ultimately, global — influence. This is a daunting task, but it might not only help to secure China’s long-term future, but also have a positive affect on resolving the region’s immense challenges.
Minghao Zhao is a research fellow at the Charhar Institute, an adjunct fellow with the Center for International and Strategic Studies at Peking University and the executive editor of China International Strategy Review.
Copyright: Project Syndicate
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