Is People First Party (PFP) Chairman James Soong (宋楚瑜) serious about running in the presidential election or not? And just how cold — or cozy — are relations between the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and his PFP? With the Jan. 14 presidential and legislative elections just over two months away, the pan-blue camp is leaving a lot of incendiary decisions to the last minute.
According to reports, Hualien County Commissioner Fu Kun-chi (傅崑萁) has been negotiating a deal that would exchange 11 spots on the KMT’s legislator-at-large list in return for Soong’s withdrawal from the presidential race. This was flatly denied by senior members of both parties, with the PFP insisting that Soong was committed to the election. However, there is no smoke without fire and the two parties are still holding talks. Who knows what they are cooking up?
The KMT has yet to release its list of candidates for legislator-at-large seats. The lack of a list betrays the degree of turmoil within the party and smacks of a repeat performance of the collusion with the PFP seen in 2008. The wrangling over the composition of the list is affecting more than the relative influence of the respective parties — it is also widening cracks in the pan-blue camp. Whether this spells an imminent parting of the ways remains to be seen.
President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) and his team have made several missteps recently, with the rather rash pronouncement of possible peace talks with China, the paltry increase of NT$316 in subsidies to elderly farmers and the petty gripes over Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen’s (蔡英文) piggy bank donation campaign. These flubs have hurt Ma’s approval ratings and some polls show Ma’s lead over Tsai has fallen to within the margin of error. If the KMT now bungles its legislator-at-large list, causing an internal backlash, it could pile more troubles on the party’s election prospects.
There are only a limited number of legislator-at-large seats available and whatever standard is used to select the KMT’s candidates, there are sure to be more people disappointed than thrilled with the final list. The DPP has already announced its list and although Tsai was criticized for catering too much to local factions and compromising on the quality of candidates, the DPP has already moved on from the infighting. The KMT, on the other hand, is likely to come under fire from all sides when it finally releases its list, irrespective of who is on it. People will be picking holes in it and comparing it with those of the DPP and PFP.
Finalizing its list will be a painful process, even if the KMT gets it done without any more fuss. If the party elites insist on continuing to use the list as a bargaining chip in backroom deals with the PFP, the repercussions might be more serious than imagined. And if the KMT really is trying to forge a covert deal with the PFP by trading legislator-at-large seats for Soong’s acquiescence, it would be a blatant violation of the Presidential and Vice Presidential Election and Recall Act (總統副總統選舉罷免法). If it ever comes to light that this is what they have been doing, it could be politically and legally explosive.
The legislator-at-large list is an effective tool to make friends among local factions, academics, civic groups and politicians, but the limited amount of spots means many hopefuls will be left out in the cold. Choosing who gets to be included is a tricky balance to achieve. There is no way the KMT will be able to please everyone, but if it just uses its list to buy off the PFP or pander to local factions, disregarding what the public wants, the KMT might be consigning itself to a drubbing.
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