The possibility of a peace agreement with China is a hot topic in Taiwan these days. The US Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) recently held a symposium, titled “Assessing the US-Taiwan Security Partnership.” Following suggestions that the US should “abandon Taiwan,” the question of whether it is possible to defend Taiwan anymore has become a concern for those who closely follow Taiwan-US relations.
Those who say that the US should stop supporting Taiwan and that it is no longer possible to defend Taiwan do not represent mainstream opinion and such views are unlikely to become official policy in the near future. However, there are many signs indicating that Taiwan is being overlooked and marginalized in US policy regarding the Asia-Pacific region. Taiwanese would be ill-advised to take this lightly.
The latest sign of how Taiwan’s position in Washington’s Asia-Pacific policy may be slipping emerged from what US Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta said recently at a press conference he gave while visiting Indonesia. Referring to the US’ decision to upgrade Taiwan’s F-16A/B aircraft, Panetta said the US had given China a “heads-up” before announcing the upgrade plan and he praised China for its measured response. Panetta’s statement immediately provoked a reaction from the US Congress, with some members saying that it contradicted one of the “six assurances” conveyed to Taiwan by then-US president Ronald Reagan in 1982, namely that the US would not consult China before selling arms to Taiwan. Some members of Congress are said to be planning to write to Panetta expressing their concern and asking him to give a clear explanation.
Another matter for concern is that, although the balance of military power across the Taiwan Strait is already clearly tilted in China’s favor, Taiwan’s desire to buy F-16C/D aircraft from the US has not been fulfilled. When US President Barack Obama visited China two years ago, he did not mention the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) and there was no mention of the act in the joint statement released at the end of his visit. When Obama met Chinese President Hu Jintao (胡錦濤) in Washington at the beginning of this year, he mentioned the TRA only at a press conference. Over the past few months, statements coming from the Obama administration, including US Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, regarding its Asia policy, have increasingly tended to gloss over Taiwan. It is rare nowadays to hear things like former US president George W. Bush’s praise for Taiwan’s democracy or former US secretary of state Colin Powell’s description of Taiwan as a “success story.”
Some academics have proposed abandoning Taiwan. They stress the need to avoid going to war over Taiwan and say that abandoning Taiwan is necessary so that US-China relations can develop smoothly.
Those who support this say that China has become a powerful country, so the US should reconsider whether it is necessary to defend Taiwan. In their view, Taiwan is a stumbling block for US-China relations, and they see Taiwan as a friend that the US does not really need. They see US-Taiwan friendship as a liability for the US. These people conclude that the US could either drop Taiwan or use Taiwan policy as a bargaining chip in return for China’s cooperation on the South China Sea as well as other issues.
At the same time, there are others who say that Taiwan is headed for Finlandization, meaning that it is getting closer to China and will inevitably be unified with its giant neighbor. They conclude that the US should shift its resources and attention away from Taiwan.
Until now, the idea of abandoning Taiwan has only been proposed by a few academics; it is not a mainstream viewpoint. Georgetown University’s Nancy Bernkopf Tucker and CSIS senior fellow Bonnie Glaser both said a couple of weeks ago that the US cannot abandon Taiwan. They said the US should strengthen its relations with Taiwan and continue to sell it arms to make Taipei more confident about negotiating with Beijing.
Tucker said that if the US makes concessions on matters of Taiwan’s security and ends arms sales or abandons Taiwan, it would send out the wrong signals both at home and abroad.
Glaser also said that the US should not let China draw a red line on arms sales.
University of Pennsylvania international relations professor Arthur Waldron said that elections have led to the formation of a particular identity and consensus within Taiwan, and that China, with its political and social instabilities, would be more likely to change.
No matter what opinions US academics and experts may hold, the most reliable support for Taiwan in the face of China’s carrot-and-stick moves toward annexation comes from the great majority of the Taiwanese public, who will never abandon Taiwan.
Many things that President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) has done during his term in office have led toward Taiwan being gradually absorbed into China’s sphere of influence, to the extent that it will be hard to get out again. Ma’s policies are the main reason why calls to abandon Taiwan are getting louder in the US.
There are many examples to show how Ma is abandoning Taiwan. Consider his proudest political achievement, the cross-strait Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA). The word “Taiwan” is nowhere to be found in the articles of the agreement, nor is there any mention of Ma’s made-up “1992 consensus” or the concept of “one China, with each side having its own interpretation” that the fictional “consensus” is supposed to entail. The ECFA is formulated in a way that does away with states and governments. Taiwan and the Republic of China (ROC) are both abandoned in the agreement.
Similarly, in international forums the Ma administration accepts all kinds of weird and wonderful titles in place of Taiwan or the ROC. The same is true even at home. At the recent Sunrise LPGA Taiwan Championship, for example, the authorities wanted to sideline Taiwan and the ROC in the name of “following the Olympic model.” Luckily, sponsors and fans who were not willing to forsake their own country were on hand to save our nation’s dignity.
It needs to be understood that if the cross-strait peace accord that Ma has been talking about is allowed to go ahead, it is bound to involve abandoning Taiwan. Such an accord would be a cover for an agreement between Ma’s Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and the Chinese Communist Party. It would cut Taiwan off from any future arms purchases and it would lead people in Taiwan to drop their guard. Eventually, Taiwan’s fate would be “peaceful unification” with China. That being the case, it is crystal clear what choice the great majority of the public who refuse to abandon Taiwan should make.
TRANSLATED BY JULIAN CLEGG
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