Wed, Oct 05, 2011 page8

• US arms sale will be a deterrent

  • By Sushil Seth
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  The US’ announcement last month of a US$5.85 billion arms package to Taiwan drew a predictably angry response from China. Xinhua news agency called it a “despicable breach of faith in international relations,” while the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs warned of serious harm to relations.

  Will it? Considering that the US decision, for the time being at least, is for upgrades of Taipei’s aging fleet of F-16A/Bs, Beijing shouldn’t feel too bad. It could have been worse, because Taipei had asked for new F-16C/D aircraft to face up to China’s military threat. That request from Taipei has reportedly been deferred for possible reconsideration at a later time.

  In light of China’s past angry responses to every US arms sale to Taiwan, its protest over this one is part of a pattern. However, Beijing might signal its displeasure in some concrete way, and the most dramatic would be the cancelation of Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping’s (習近平) — who is widely expected to take over as the country’s president and party chief next year — forthcoming US visit, though such a strong reaction is considered unlikely.

  The point is China is not happy. It doesn’t reflect well on the government and the party that the US should get away with it at a time when China is feeling increasingly confident of its international standing; and nationalism is its one strong card with the people.

  It would need to show people that the country’s rulers are determined to uphold national dignity. The US supplying arms to Taiwan, regarded by China as its territory, are considered an “affront” to its sovereignty.

  However, any dramatic response will have to be carefully balanced to convey a strong message without disrupting US-China bilateral relations. These are difficult political and economic times for both countries that require careful management.

  Beijing also needs to consider the impact its response might have on the political fortunes of President Ma Ying-jeou’s (馬英九) administration, which has so far been its best bet in Taiwan’s fractious political landscape.

  China certainly wouldn’t like the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) to stage a comeback. Consequently, don’t expect any hard response from China, but it has to dramatize its strong displeasure, and what it will be remains to be seen.

  Over many years now China has felt bitter and angry at the US over Taiwan. Under the Taiwan Relations Act, the US is committed to provide Taiwan with weapons to defense itself. Washington has no problem with peaceful unification, if Taiwanese were so inclined. However, the use of force by China is another matter.

  In 1996, then-US president Bill Clinton moved an aircraft carrier group toward the Taiwan Strait in the face of Chinese saber-rattling, and the crisis was averted. In other words, Taiwan was saved.

  Beijing has also sought to internationally delegitimize Taiwan as a sovereign entity. To this end, any country maintaining normal diplomatic relations with Taiwan has been subjected to Chinese pressure and coercion and/or inducements. And as China has become more powerful economically and politically, it has managed to isolate Taiwan internationally.

  However, all through this, Taipei has maintained its nerve. Two things have helped Taiwan. First, of course, is that the US has stood against its annexation.

  Second, Taiwan’s transition to a democracy in the 1980s has given it a certain moral edge over China. Why would Taiwan willingly agree to be incorporated by an authoritarian state and lose its democratic freedoms?

  China has also sought to foster and cultivate groups and constituencies within Taiwan sympathetic to and supportive of Beijing.

  The business community was and has been its foremost target, keen to invest and manufacture in China to avail of its low production costs and marketing advantages. In this, China has done a pretty good job. The allure of China’s low production costs and huge market made the business community critical of the DPP when it was in power.

  The perception that former president Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) was unduly provoking China without making any headway also had a negative effect on the populace at large. In other words, China made some political gains in Taiwan that translated into Ma’s election as president.

  Ma, of course, claimed during his election campaign that he would do wonders in improving relations with the China for Taiwan’s economic advantage. There hasn’t been much of that. He also talked of negotiating a peace treaty with China that, not surprisingly, hasn’t happened.

  A peace treaty is generally contracted between sovereign states. Since China regards Taiwan as its territory, that was obviously a non-starter.

  China, therefore, continues to target more than 1,000 missiles at Taiwan to keep the Taiwanese on notice that it means business if it doesn’t get its way. Indeed, Beijing has kept the military option open to prevent Taiwan from formally declaring independence.

  In its dealings with the US regarding Taiwan, Beijing has maintained a two-fold strategy. In the first place, it has sought to persuade and pressure Washington to ditch Taiwan and thus create a new cooperative and friendly relationship between the two countries.

  As part of this, the US is required to stop selling arms to Taiwan, thus encouraging it to become part of China. That tactic hasn’t worked.

  In the second place, China is building up its military power and using it to turn the Taiwan Strait into its territorial lake. This, Beijing believes, will deter the US from coming to Taiwan’s help by making it a costly affair.

  However, if China were to raise the stakes that high by daring the US, it would cease to be a matter involving just Taiwan. Indeed, it will look more like an open bid for Chinese domination over the Asia-Pacific region.

  Beijing is already doing it — declaring the South China Sea a “core interest” and trying unsuccessfully to bar the US from joint naval exercises in the Yellow Sea. If Beijing were to try to raise the stakes on Taiwan, it might not stop there, because it would be a signal to the US and other regional countries that China is a threat to most of them.

  China is unlikely to go that far in the short term. It will bide its time. However, there are quite a few hotheads in China’s military and political establishments that are itching to make it the ultimate power.

  In that sense, the US decision to supply arms to Taiwan is an important deterrent, as well as an assurance to Taiwan that it is not alone.

  Sushil Seth is a writer based in Australia.
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