Two years ago this month in Prague, US President Barack Obama put forward his visionary idea of a world free of nuclear weapons. A year ago, a new strategic arms treaty between Russia and the US was signed in the same city. Now the worldwide wave of support for a full ban on nuclear weapons, or “nuclear zero,” is being transformed into a debate about nuclear deterrence. Indeed, the four US strategists who first called for “nuclear zero” — Henry Kissinger, George Shultz, William Perry and Sam Nunn — have partly backtracked, and are now calling for an end to the doctrine of “mutual assured destruction,” or MAD.
Unfortunately, their suggestions on how to accomplish this are unclear. Their only concrete proposal is asymmetrical cuts of tactical nuclear weapons by Russia and the US, but tactical weapons are not a serious threat to anybody. Moreover, Russia is not interested in significantly reducing this part of its nuclear arsenal. It needs such weapons to compensate psychologically for NATO’s preponderance — a reversal of the Cold War epoch — in conventional forces. More importantly, Russia considers these weapons insurance against the possibility of Chinese conventional superiority.
I firmly doubt the need to dispense with deterrence. After all, it worked successfully for decades: the unprecedented geostrategic, military and ideological confrontation of the Cold War never escalated into open, head-to-head warfare. The existence of nuclear weapons also curbed the conventional arms race.
The most important function of nuclear weapons during the Cold War — though little spoken of at the time — proved to be “self-deterrence.” Of course, each side considered itself peaceful and would not admit that it, too, had to be deterred, but the danger that any conflict could escalate into a nuclear confrontation prevented reckless and dangerous behavior on both sides on more than one occasion.
With communism’s collapse and Russia temporarily disabled, self-deterrence softened and the US ran off the rails as the global hyper-power. It behaved in ways that would have been unthinkable before — for example, its attacks on Yugoslavia, Afghanistan and Iraq. The latter two wars have been politically self-defeating for the US, in addition to costing it trillions of dollars. The US is no less militarily powerful nowadays than previously, but it does not look so strong to the wider world.
Nuclear deterrence and mutually assured destruction would be passe only if we assumed that we — people, countries and humankind at large — had become so ideal and humane that we no longer needed self-deterrence. However, unfortunately, we are not such people, and nuclear weapons have played — and -continue to play — a civilizing role in international relations: Their use would be so horrible that we tailor our behavior accordingly. As a result, we have little fear of World War III nowadays, even though unprecedentedly rapid changes in the global balance of power are creating classic conditions for unleashing it.
After all, the mere possession of nuclear weapons, even if aimed at each other, does not turn countries into enemies. Russian and Chinese strategists assume that part of their countries’ nuclear potential may be targeted at the other side, but this does not spoil their remarkable bilateral relations; on the contrary, it improves them. Russia, with its formal nuclear superiority, has no serious fears regarding China’s military buildup.
In this sense, nuclear weapons facilitate normal international relations, just like a good fence helps build good neighborly relations. Russia and the US must seek to build relations such as now exist between Russia and China, Russia and France, or the US, France and the UK.
Limited arms reductions might be useful for improving relations, but arms-control talks are built upon the concept of the balance of forces, which is a sure recipe for reviving confrontational and militaristic thinking.
The talks on pan-European missile-defense cooperation might come in handy. While missile defense is most likely unnecessary, given the absence of any serious threat, the Obama administration and other US realists — who are aware of the impossibility and uselessness of creating a multi-layered anti-ballistic missile (ABM) system — need such talks. They must at least pretend that they intend to build it, in order to appease the US’ powerful nuclear “isolationists,” who long for the past golden age of US strategic invulnerability.
Talk about creating regional, cooperative ABM systems might be helpful in preventing the development of long-range missiles by Europe’s neighbors. It might also help Russia and the US overcome their old habit of viewing each other as enemies.
However, what is really needed is effective cooperation where it counts the most: containing the increasing instability in the greater Middle East, ensuring that Afghanistan does not turn into yet another regional cancer and preventing a chain reaction of nuclear proliferation in the region.
So far, only the US and Russia — with the assistance, one hopes, of China, India and EU — can hope to address these problems more or less effectively. They can offer security guarantees to responsible countries in the region. Sooner or later, peace will have to be imposed upon the Israelis and the Palestinians, who have proven to be incapable of reaching a settlement on their own.
Similarly, Russia and the US need cooperation, not farcical rivalry, in developing new sea routes and possible energy deposits in the Arctic, and in interacting with China and other Asia-Pacific countries in joint development of the resource potential of Siberia and Russia’s Far East. Russia will not be able to develop the region on its own. And developing it with China alone could prove to be a dangerous strategy.
However, if the two countries fail to overcome their bad old habits of mutual suspicion, their remaining — quite powerful — nuclear arsenals will continue to serve deterrence and self-deterrence. As long as we remain unable to make ourselves think and act in a civilized way, we can — indeed, we must — ensure that we do not become barbaric.
Sergei Karaganov is dean of the School of World Economics and International Affairs, National Research University-Higher School of Economics.
COPYRIGHT: PROJECT SYNDICATE
With escalating US-China competition and mutual distrust, the trend of supply chain “friend shoring” in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic and the fragmentation of the world into rival geopolitical blocs, many analysts and policymakers worry the world is retreating into a new cold war — a world of trade bifurcation, protectionism and deglobalization. The world is in a new cold war, said Robin Niblett, former director of the London-based think tank Chatham House. Niblett said he sees the US and China slowly reaching a modus vivendi, but it might take time. The two great powers appear to be “reversing carefully
As China steps up a campaign to diplomatically isolate and squeeze Taiwan, it has become more imperative than ever that Taipei play a greater role internationally with the support of the democratic world. To help safeguard its autonomous status, Taiwan needs to go beyond bolstering its defenses with weapons like anti-ship and anti-aircraft missiles. With the help of its international backers, it must also expand its diplomatic footprint globally. But are Taiwan’s foreign friends willing to translate their rhetoric into action by helping Taipei carve out more international space for itself? Beating back China’s effort to turn Taiwan into an international pariah
Typhoon Krathon made landfall in southwestern Taiwan last week, bringing strong winds, heavy rain and flooding, cutting power to more than 170,000 homes and water supply to more than 400,000 homes, and leading to more than 600 injuries and four deaths. Due to the typhoon, schools and offices across the nation were ordered to close for two to four days, stirring up familiar controversies over whether local governments’ decisions to call typhoon days were appropriate. The typhoon’s center made landfall in Kaohsiung’s Siaogang District (小港) at noon on Thursday, but it weakened into a tropical depression early on Friday, and its structure
Taiwan is facing multiple economic challenges due to internal and external pressures. Internal challenges include energy transition, upgrading industries, a declining birthrate and an aging population. External challenges are technology competition between the US and China, international supply chain restructuring and global economic uncertainty. All of these issues complicate Taiwan’s economic situation. Taiwan’s reliance on fossil fuel imports not only threatens the stability of energy supply, but also goes against the global trend of carbon reduction. The government should continue to promote renewable energy sources such as wind and solar power, as well as energy storage technology, to diversify energy supply. It
RSS