Blissfully indifferent to doubts over its own performance in government, the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) went ahead with its planned march last weekend. The march was about ... well, there seemed to be a bit of confusion about what that might be exactly. It was all a bit random, a bit cobbled together.
Initially it was going to be about the not guilty verdict in the Second Financial Reform case, in which former president Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) had stood accused of money laundering, prompting last-minute calls for the march to focus on fighting -corruption and judicial reform. Next up was Chen’s wife, Wu Shu-jen (吳淑珍), who had been given a heavy sentence on a further two charges, a result much more to the KMT’s liking. Suddenly the calls for judicial reform and fighting corruption receded, and it was decided a carnival atmosphere might be more the order of the day. That changed with public indignation over the controversial disqualification of Taiwanese taekwondo athlete Yang Shu-chun (楊淑君) at the Asia Games in Guangzhou and wham! We have yet another agenda — at least ostensibly — decrying China’s cynical plot against one of our own.
Although the purported focus of the march flitted from pillar to post, the real reason for it, let’s be honest, remained quite unchanged. The KMT wanted to help current Taipei Mayor Hau Lung-bin (郝龍斌) in his re-election bid. However, while other pan-blue camp heavyweights were racking their brains trying to come up with a good excuse to bequeath the proceedings some kind of nominal legitimacy, President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九), who also acts as party chairman, was the only one frank enough to call a spade a spade. Yes, it was all about the election. Summarized neatly in a single phrase.
It’s actually quite strange that the KMT was backed into a position of having to cast around for a reason for their march, grasping at whatever seemed relevant at the time. In the cut and thrust of democratic elections, it is usually the opposition that is obliged to appeal to emotive issues, and pitch pointed barbs to rile their opponent. In contrast, the party in power usually proffers a defense, parries criticism using its political achievements and comes back fighting with facts and figures to back its case. This special municipality election, however, seems to have followed a rather unconventional path.
The ruling party has repeatedly come at the opposition with smears and allegations, the former adopting tactics conventionally deployed by the latter. For its part, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) opposition has abandoned the expected hyperbole and confrontational tactics and insisted instead on a more rational, persuasive and constructive approach, concentrating on moving forward, happiness and progress.
So what we seem to have here is the KMT, which has the advantage of being in government, rushing headlong into the fray rather than manning the battlements and defending the high ground. This has proven to be a tactical error, and the party has found itself attempting to retreat to an ill-guarded fort, exposed on all sides and vulnerable after two years of lackluster leadership that offers little in the way of defense.
Disorientated and desperate, they have raised their swords high and rushed the enemy.
In other words, the KMT has not done well in government and, worried it might lose its grip on power, the party has chosen to take the fight to the DPP. Facing defeat, they have gambled everything on one last shot at victory. The curious circus being played out in front of us at the moment is the product of this attitude. Rather than use our own measure of the KMT’s record in government, let’s take one of Ma’s own promises, on which the success of his presidency hangs, his “6-3-3” plan.
Originally inspired by a similar initiative as part of a campaign promise by South Korean President Lee Myung-bak, the 6-3-3 plan stood for 6 percent economic growth per year, per capita income of US$30,000 and an unemployment rate lower than 3 percent by 2012. So far, Ma’s promise has turned out to be something of a bounced check.
Let’s start with economic growth. According to official statistics from the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics, the economy “grew” by minus 0.8 percent in the third quarter of 2008, the first year of Ma’s presidency, and by minus 7.1 percent the following quarter. The rate was still negative last year, at minus 1.93 percent. Although the rate for the first and second quarters this year have registered 13.7 percent and 12.5 percent, respectively, the per quarter figure averaged out over the past two years is only around 1 percent, falling far short of the 6 percent target.
In 2008, the unemployment rate was 4.14 percent, rising to 5.85 percent last year and over 5 percent this year. The peak was in August last year, when it was 6.13 percent, the highest recorded to date. This year, Premier Wu Den-yih (吳敦義) promised to step down if the government failed to cut unemployment to less than 5 percent by the end of the year. Cue all kinds of government initiatives to get people in jobs, such as subsidized salaries and a large number of temporary positions. Even then, they still struggled to get the figure for last month below 5 percent.
Finally, there is the income level. In 2008, average per capita GDP was equivalent to US$17,399, falling to US$16,353 last year. Again, the level is predicted to rise this year to US$18,472, but the average over the two years Ma has been in power is only US$17,408, just over half the target level of US$30,000.
Economic indicators for this year certainly do look rosy, but this is not surprising given the dire figures over the past two years. It is what is known as a “dead cat bounce” — even a dead cat will bounce if dropped from a sufficient height. Any perceived economic recovery is not reflected in increased income levels or more job opportunities for ordinary workers.
Taiwan’s situation is particularly precarious, as more than half the orders taken in Taiwan are now produced on Chinese soil, and exports to China account for as much as 14.3 percent of GDP, a higher percentage than for any other country in the world. Neither of these figures are good news for Taiwanese workers, as they suggest that for every US$100 in orders taken by a Taiwanese company, more than US$50 of this is actually made in China, translating into lost job opportunities for local workers.
In other words, the economic growth rate for this year could be 9.98 percent without a comparable increase in incomes and salaries, and increasing unemployment. Add to this our reliance on China for our export market, showing that China has an increasing stranglehold on our economy.
Given his record in government over the past two years, Ma has nothing to brag about in this election campaign. When it came to the march last weekend, all he could do was talk about what the public were complaining about: It was just a ruse to change the subject.
TRANSLATED BY PAUL COOPER
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