Today marks the start of the third week of this year’s Taipei International Flora Expo, and the cloudy skies that have overshadowed the first two weeks seem a portent of things to come: The clouds don’t bode well for the expo’s finances.
The expo was hit even before it opened by questions over figure fudging in the contracts for the Xinsheng Overpass beautification project and the overall cost of the event, which was budgeted at NT$9.5 billion (US$314 million). Defending his administration’s handling of the expo, Taipei Mayor Hau Lung-bin (郝龍斌) said in August that the expo would bring in NT$16.8 billion in economic returns. Given the sparse attendance so far and the vast array of discounted tickets on offer, it’s hard to see how city officials think they are going to break even on the 171-day event, even though they inflated their original goal of 6 million visitors — announced in November 2008 — to 8 million (including just 500,000 foreigners — so much for the “international” in “International Flora Expo”).
Ting Hsi-yung (丁錫鏞), director of the expo’s organizing committee, blamed the low turnout of 38,898 visitors on opening day — versus the 100,000 per day expected on weekends — on the bad weather and people wanting to avoid the large crowd. He might have been right, since 72,000 showed up last Sunday, but with weeks of winter weather ahead, it’s not a good sign.
Ting told reporters that 3.5 million advance tickets had been sold by opening day. However, those numbers won’t go far to fill up the coffers. Hau said in August that 98 percent of the advance tickets were sold to corporations (meaning they would be eligible for a group discount of 40 percent) or via online sales. Individuals buying online during the advance sale period could purchase the NT$300 tickets for NT$250.
Of course the NT$300 is only the price of a regular adult ticket. Even if you missed the advance sale period, there are many ways to get in for less. A student ticket (junior high and above) is NT$200, while a ticket for elementary-school students, seniors, pregnant women (proof required) or low-income residents goes for NT$150. Children under six get in free, as do disabled visitors and one attendant, two teachers per class visit and anyone who has held on to their ticket stubs from the opening or closing ceremonies of last year’s Deaflympics. Then there are the reduced admissions tickets — after 1pm (NT$200) and 5pm (NT$150) — and the multiple admission e-passes, which range from NT$600 for three days to NT$2,500 for the entire expo.
Taking all those discounts into account — and feeling generous — let’s say the average price paid for tickets is NT$200. Even if all 8 million promised visitors show up, that would only bring in NT$1.6 billion. Given that the expo has been averaging between 30,000 and 40,000 visitors a day, making that 8 million, which would require 46,783 people a day to go through the electronic turnstiles, will be difficult.
Perhaps we are worrying for nothing. On Thursday we learned that the Department of Health was doing its bit to boost attendance by allowing employees to take paid leave (and receive educational credit) for attending the expo. Department of Health Minister Yaung Chih-liang (楊志良) said visiting the expo was an environmental and educational activity, so he thought it would be a good thing to encourage civil servants to go to help fulfill their lifetime learning program requirements. Just speculating, but if one ministry was making such an offer, it’s hard to believe that government agencies or municipal offices aren’t doing so as well.
So the government appears to be doing its part to boost attendance figures. Boosting the economic return on the event, however, will take a lot more effort, as will any attempt to make the expo seem like anything more than a bid to boost Hau’s re--election bid. If we’re wrong, we’d be happy to eat a few flowers.
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