After South Korea’s ruling party suffered a terrible loss in local elections in mid-June, US President Barack Obama’s government suffered a landslide loss in the recent US midterm elections. With Taiwan’s special municipality elections coming up this month, the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) could find itself in a similar situation.
When making a comparison to other countries, it is important to consider that Taiwan has a “party-state” form of government unlike other democratic nations — the KMT has party assets that other political parties do not have and the legislature has been turned into a rubber stamp. These factors have caused democracy in Taiwan to regress, while the KMT’s pro-China policies have landed Taiwan’s economy in hot water. It is very likely that these facts will deal a fatal blow to the KMT in the upcoming elections.
Several recent public opinion polls have reflected the attitudes of the average voter. For example, many people refuse to say that they will support the pan-blue camp and even more have refused to be interviewed at all, especially people from Taipei City and Taipei County. In other words, while the cooperation between the KMT and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) resulted in the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA), those party-level contacts have caused a lot of unease in Taiwan.
Since China continues to increase the number of missiles it has aimed at Taiwan — now up to 1,400 — and refuses to forgo the right to to use military force against Taiwan, the KMT cannot take the credit it wants for improved cross-strait relations and it might have actually cost it popular support.
It is therefore not very strange that 80 percent to 90 percent of respondents in numerous public opinion polls have said they want to maintain the “status quo.” This makes it abundantly clear that Taiwanese want to keep Taiwan’s democratic system, while they fear “unification” with China.
In addition, President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) has mixed party and government affairs to cut corners and used the KMT’s legislative majority to pass several undemocratic laws. At the same time, Ma has used a wide range of techniques to promote the ECFA, which he pushed through the legislature using the pan-blue legislative majority. The ECFA was not subject to comprehensive oversight, as the articles of the agreement automatically took effect within six months of the agreement being signed.
These party-state actions have been criticized and together with Ma’s bad performance, infuriated the average voters that supported Ma in the past.
These voters are very independent and they could vote green or blue or even abstain. For example, in 2004, the actions of an alliance of voters advocating casting spoiled ballots resulted in more than 300,000 invalid votes. This means that things do not look good for the KMT in the elections because they will inevitably be affected by the actions of the average voter to some extent: Even if the KMT can’t see them, they exist all around Taiwan.
The increase in support for the DPP and the number of pan-blue candidates that lost out in past by-elections and the three-in-one elections last year are linked to average voters and it is a reflection of the public’s dissatisfaction with the KMT’s party-state mode of politics.
KMT Secretary-General King Pu-tsung (金溥聰) has recently said that it will not be the fault of the party chairman if the KMT performs badly in the elections, but in the mayoral and county commissioner elections of 2005, Ma, who was also party chairman back then, said he would resign if the party did not win at least half of the seats. He was very determined back then, but now his most senior assistant has to take responsibility for him.
However, rather than saying that Ma is afraid of losing the chairmanship, it is probably more accurate to say that this is a result of a great change that has taken place in both the political climate and public expectations.
The Nov. 27 elections have now turned into a vote of confidence in the current party state system. It will be interesting to see whether the party chairman will take responsibility for a potential election loss, a decision which could have a great impact on the pan-blue camp and maybe even lead to a split.
Lu I-ming is former publisher and president of Taiwan’s Shin Sheng Daily News.
TRANSLATED BY DREW CAMERON
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