Until recently, China had the upper hand in East Asia. It had realized its dream of becoming the second-biggest economy in the world, and neighboring countries were becoming more economically dependent on it. Japan and South Korea’s relations with the US were unsettled, and Taiwan’s government under President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) was showing itself to be pro-China. However, with extreme nationalism on the rise within China, its neighbors have all started taking precautionary measures. China has ended the loser in the latest series of developments.
First, the sinking of the South Korean corvette Cheonan allowed the US to strengthen its alliance with South Korea. After that, when China and Japan came to loggerheads over the Diaoyutai Islands (釣魚台), the US kept to its stance of upholding the status quo, stating that the Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security between the US and Japan acknowledges Japan’s administrative jurisdiction over the Diaoyutais.
With this one simple move, the US got Japan back on its side. Washington set itself up as an arbiter between Japan and China and gained for itself from doing so.
Later, tensions in the South China Sea between China and ASEAN created strains in US-China relations, and the tensions between these two superpowers in turn gave ASEAN the opportunity to play the role of peacemaker by holding the ASEAN defense ministers’ meeting-Plus (ADMM-Plus).
Then it was China’s turn to play the role of arbiter. But just as everyone was applauding China for its fine diplomacy and creating a “celestial order” in East Asia, Beijing found that it had been outsmarted by the US and ASEAN.
Starting from 2006, the US started building an army-navy joint battle system to compensate for its aircraft carriers’ vulnerability to missile threats. This, coupled with the fact that China’s neighbors were taking measures to counteract Beijing’s power, saw these countries and the US invite each other to take part in joint military exercises. Even some traditional military allies of China such as Cambodia and Kazakhstan have joined in these war games.
First came the Malabar war games involving the US, India and Japan in April last year. Then, last October, the US and India held the Yudh Abhyas military exercises. That was followed by the Cobra Gold maneuvers involving Thailand and five other nations in February. In March, the US and South Korea held joint military exercises. In May, the US, Indonesia and seven other countries held joint military maneuvers. From June to August, 14 nations took part in the “Rim of the Pacific Exercise.” After that, the US, Japan and South Korea held their yearly joint war games. In June, Washington and Seoul held more joint military exercises.
In June, Cambodia and 25 other nations took part in Angkor Sentinel 2010. In August, the US and Vietnam held their first ever joint war games. Mongolia’s annual exercise Khaan Quest was attended by various nations. Then the US and South Korea held their yearly Ulchi Freedom Guardian exercise, and lastly, in September, Kazakhstan and two other nations held joint maneuvers.
This has been infuriating for China, which is convinced that other countries are stepping up their efforts to encircle and contain it by reforging an “arc of freedom and prosperity.”
In March, China responded by telling the US that the South China Sea was one of China’s core interests and that China would adopt an “anti-intervention strategy” if international powers got involved in the issue.
In July, US Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton responded by saying that the dispute over the South China Sea called for international collective negotiations. Because this went against China’s strategy of dealing with each country in turn through bilateral negotiations, Chinese Minister of Foreign Affairs Yang Jiechi (楊潔篪) insisted that disputes in the South China Sea could only be solved by bilateral talks between the nations concerned, without interference from other countries or bodies.
With tensions on the rise, last month’s ADMM-Plus talks were expected to be a showdown between the two sides. However, the meeting unexpectedly saw China call off the battle. Chinese Major General Wang Haiyun (王海運) opted for a more face-saving method of “informally clearing things up” and said China had never stated that it would adopt a “anti-intervention strategy.”
Wang also said that China cared even more than the US about the principles mentioned by Clinton in relation to the South China Sea, and that earlier comments about the south China Sea being a core interest for China were just the opinions of individual academics and not the government’s official stance. Even demands related to national sovereignty and “core interests” should be solved by peaceful and friendly negotiations, he said.
After this, Chinese Minister of National Defense Liang Guanglie (梁光烈) no longer rejected the idea that a “limited” multilateral security structure be adopted to handle the South China Sea issue. In the end the meeting, which was held in Hanoi, spurred talks between Chinese and Japanese defense ministers, and inspired China to invite US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates for a visit. After the meeting, Gates gave his assurances that the US Army would continue to uphold peace in East Asia.
In June, General Ma Xiaotian (馬曉天), deputy chief of general staff of the People’s Liberation Army, proposed that the South China Sea was a core interest of China. But on Oct. 22 he changed his tune, saying that everyone should have rights in the South China Sea according to the principle of freedom of navigation, as enshrined in international law.
China has started to clean up the disadvantageous situation provoked by the sudden increase in extreme nationalism over the past year. However, jingoism is easy to start and hard to stop. Reverberations from the Diaoyutais spat are still being felt. Nationalistic protest marches have been held in many Chinese cities and could very easily get out of control. Chinese delegates at the Tokyo International Film Festival even made trouble for the Taiwanese delegation, leaving the Japanese hosts helpless to intervene except to say that they supported Taiwan’s continued participation.
China’s hawks are in a hurry to show off its might as a superpower, and they used to hold all the right cards. However, their plans have backfired and they are now at a disadvantage at every turn.
Lin Cho-shui is a former Democratic Progressive Party legislator.
TRANSLATED BY DREW CAMERON
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