Recently, President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) mentioned in an interview with CNN that Taiwan would not ask the US to go to war on its behalf. On the surface, this shows a recognition of Washington’s difficulties and a promise not to make excessive demands of the US. If we dig a little deeper, though, other issues start to become clear.
If we take a close look at the government’s handling of national security and cross-strait policies, we cannot exclude the possibility that it is actually offering “political gains” to Chinese President Hu Jintao (胡錦濤), a strategic move to secure the signing of an economic cooperation framework agreement (ECFA) between Taiwan and China by the end of next month.
Ma mentioned US intervention in any possible conflict twice during the interview. The first time, he said that Taiwan did “not ask the US to get involved”; the second time, he said that we would “never ask Americans to fight for Taiwan,” adding that this is something that is “very, very clear” to further highlight his statement, as if Taiwan well understood the difficulties of the US.
However, if China really were to attack Taiwan, the US is unlikely to make a unilateral decision to get involved unless Taiwan were to request that it do so. When Ma said that Taiwan would not ask the US to fight for it, he was also hinting to the outside world that Taiwan had no intention of seeking US help even if a war were to break out in the Taiwan Strait. Taiwan-US military cooperation is based on defense against a Chinese military invasion, so his assertions have repercussions that go to the very core of this alliance.
If Taiwan were “never” to ask the US to help defend it, and Taiwan-US military cooperation under Ma’s rule is limited to arms procurements only, the outside world may well ask: Is this cooperation, above and beyond arms deals, still necessary? Should the software and hardware integration stop? Should the government stop inviting US experts to participate in future Hankuang (漢光) military exercises? Should the US Pacific Command scrap its operation scenarios for a war in the Strait?
All these are based on the premise of US intervention, but Ma said he would never seek US help.
Since Ma took office in 2008, he has lowered the budget allotted to the Navy and Air Force, turned the annual Hankuang drill into a biennial drill and changed its strategic mission from defense against China to disaster relief or other unconventional threats.
Obviously, his recent statements have also weakened Taiwan’s defense capacity against China. From Hu’s claim that unification is a cross-strait issue that brooks no foreign interference, I strongly suspect that Ma made the statement on security and political affairs to show his sincerity to China, hoping that Beijing will cooperate with him and sign the ECFA, as hoped, next month.
This is just like his statement describing the Taiwan Strait as “one China, two areas” in August 2008 to make way for the visit of China’s Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Strait Chairman Chen Yunlin (陳雲林), and his proposal of “one China, respective interpretation on the premise of the one China principle” in October last year in exchange for Beijing’s cooperation on an ECFA.
Looked at in this light, we can see that the government’s push to sign an ECFA is not only a great risk to Taiwan’s economy, it may also alter the status quo in the Taiwan Strait.
Lai I-chung is an executive committee member of the Taiwan Thinktank.
TRANSLATED BY EDDY CHANG
Taiwan faces complex challenges like other Asia-Pacific nations, including demographic decline, income inequality and climate change. In fact, its challenges might be even more pressing. The nation struggles with rising income inequality, declining birthrates and soaring housing costs while simultaneously navigating intensifying global competition among major powers. To remain competitive in the global talent market, Taiwan has been working to create a more welcoming environment and legal framework for foreign professionals. One of the most significant steps in this direction was the enactment of the Act for the Recruitment and Employment of Foreign Professionals (外國專業人才延攬及僱用法) in 2018. Subsequent amendments in
After nine days of holidays for the Lunar New Year, government agencies and companies are to reopen for operations today, including the Legislative Yuan. Many civic groups are expected to submit their recall petitions this week, aimed at removing many Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) lawmakers from their seats. Since December last year, the KMT and Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) passed three controversial bills to paralyze the Constitutional Court, alter budgetary allocations and make recalling elected officials more difficult by raising the threshold. The amendments aroused public concern and discontent, sparking calls to recall KMT legislators. After KMT and TPP legislators again
US President Donald Trump on Saturday signed orders to impose tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China effective from today. Trump decided to slap 25 percent tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada as well as 10 percent on those coming from China, but would only impose a 10 percent tariff on Canadian energy products, including oil and electricity. Canada and Mexico on Sunday quickly responded with retaliatory tariffs against the US, while countermeasures from China are expected soon. Nevertheless, Trump announced yesterday to delay tariffs on Mexico and Canada for a month and said he would hold further talks with
Taiwan’s undersea cables connecting it to the world were allegedly severed several times by a Chinese ship registered under a flag of convenience. As the vessel sailed, it used several different automatic identification systems (AIS) to create fake routes. That type of “shadow fleet” and “gray zone” tactics could create a security crisis in Taiwan and warrants response measures. The concept of a shadow fleet originates from the research of Elisabeth Braw, senior fellow at the Washington-based Atlantic Council. The phenomenon was initiated by authoritarian countries such as Iran, North Korea and Russia, which have been hit by international economic