Although the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) only managed to capture Yilan County from the ruling Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) in the recent mayor and county commissioner elections, the DPP’s overall vote share increased to 45 percent, only 2 percentage points shy of the KMT’s 47 percent. We can therefore say that the elections were a breakthrough and a victory for the DPP and a huge setback for the KMT. The majority of people have attributed this change to factors such as a sluggish economy, a drop-off in President Ma Ying-jeou’s (馬英九) popularity and the impact of Typhoon Morakot. However, I believe the main reason for the doubts in the minds of Taiwanese people is the change in the atmosphere of cross-strait relations. I also believe that everyone has ignored a very important factor in this equation, which is the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and its policy toward Taiwan.
Since taking office, the Ma administration has worked insidiously at expanding the scope of cross-strait exchanges. In the beginning, the government did this to increase economic growth. However, the CCP’s interest in Taiwan soon became apparent and the CCP made big changes to its Taiwan policies.
The CCP has turned its focus from the anti-independence ideology prevalent during former president Chen Shui-bian’s (陳水扁) presidency to a strategy of advancing unification. For more than a year, the CCP has talked about fostering closer cross-strait relations and even began meddling in Taiwan’s internal affairs. For example, China opposed the Kaohsiung Film Festival screening of a documentary about exiled Uighur activist Rebiya Kadeer and stopped Chinese tourists from visiting Kaohsiung in an attempt to control the DPP.
It also sent delegations to Taiwan including senior officials such as Zheng Bijian (鄭必堅) — a former vice president of the CCP’s Central Party School — nominally to take part in seminars, but in practice to bring up the topic of unification, and it has on several occasions pressed the Ma administration to engage in political negotiations with China. These actions not only worry the pan-green camp, but also make lighter blue figures uneasy.
Although the pro-unification KMT has gained power once again, public opinion on the development of cross-strait relations has basically remained unchanged. Unification supporters represent a minority of less than 10 percent of Taiwan’s population, while the vast majority advocate maintaining the status quo. Given these circumstances, for China and the KMT to start aggressively promoting political talks represents a miscalculation of public opinion and it has done much to cause alarm and resentment among the public.
In particular, the signing of an economic cooperation framework agreement is linked to Taiwan’s local industries, especially the future of the agricultural sector. As the stronger side in negotiations, China’s overbearing attitude in talks on agricultural issues has angered many in southern Taiwan.
Because the Ma government wants to uphold friendly cross-strait relations, it must remain silent in the face of China’s strength. This is a major reason for the change in public opinion as expressed in the recent elections and it is something the Ma government will have to change in its cross-strait strategies. However, the primary reason behind the KMT’s loss of votes is the haste and lack of patience China has shown in its quest for unification. The CCP is desperately trying to move cross-strait relations and negotiations in the direction of politics before a huge change in public opinion occurs in Taiwan that would spoil their plans.
For example, strong comments made in the past by Chinese officials such as former Chinese premier Zhu Rongji (朱鎔基) and former vice premier Wu Yi (吳儀) caused a backlash in Taiwan and helped the election chances of former presidents Lee Teng-hui (李登輝) and Chen.
During the Chen era, the CCP seemed to have learned a few lessons. While Chen crossed Beijing’s red line in terms of cross-strait relations several times during his time in office, the CCP handled these issues in a low-key manner so as to avoid negative reactions from the pan-green camp. However, over the last year or so, the CCP seems to have forgotten these lessons, as the examples mentioned above demonstrate. The main reason is that the CCP believes it cannot let the opportunity for unification go now that the KMT has regained power. This is why China has reverted to its old habits.
Wang Dan is a visiting assistant professor at National Chengchi University’s Graduate Institute of Taiwan History and a prominent figure in China’s democracy movement.
TRANSLATED BY DREW CAMERON
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