Observers of President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) know him to be a man who depends on image and not consistency in his word. For this reason they watch his actions and ignore his words.
For example, Ma has tried to promote the carrot that China will save Taiwan. Forget the fact that the Chinese dumped poisoned milk and other defective products on the Taiwanese market. Forget that his discredited election promises on income, unemployment and economic growth were based on the China premise. Forget the fact that the great Chinese tourist influx failed to materialize, and that even the few tourists that have come have been stingy compared with the Japanese and the Koreans.
Let us focus instead on Ma’s ongoing cross-strait promises. China will save Taiwan, he says, and Taiwan must not be left behind. Unfortunately, reality continues to conflict with this promise.
Ma states he will not enter into political discussions with China, and that he will only discuss the economy. Can they be separated? This can be read as “Wait until I have given the nation’s economic and military strength away, then, when it is too late, I will discuss politics.”
Even so, buoyed by Ma’s smoke and mirror promises, Taiwan’s news media, unquestioning sheep that they are, are full of how Ma’s economic deals will bring wealth. In particular, they will push up the price of housing all around the island.
Economic salvation. This sounds good, right? Good if you have property to sell. But what if you don’t? Ma’s words then become a simple formula for the rich to get richer and the poor to get poorer. And which party controls the majority of Taiwan’s assets and stands to gain from housing price grains?
In Taipei City’s Da-an District (大安), one of the wealthiest areas of the city, the peak price of housing last year was NT$828,000 per ping (3.3m²). This year, in anticipation of Ma’s promised but non-transparent ECFA, the price has increased to NT$908,000 per ping. Next year it is expected to hit NT$1 million per ping.
Prices are likely to rise all around Taiwan. All well and good if you have property to sell, but what if you don’t? What if you want to buy?
Other questions follow. For those that sell, where will they move to? A smaller city? The countryside? Or perhaps, like some of Taiwan’s ex-legislators and politicians, they plan to move to the US or Canada where more house can be bought for the dollar. If so, to whom will they sell this rich Taiwanese real estate?
Who will be able to afford this high-priced housing?
Not your average Taiwanese. No, it will be rich Chinese from across the Strait. The same scenario happened with housing in Hong Kong. Here, the rub is beginning to be felt and the shallowness of Ma’s promises of wealth is becoming evident.
Another recent item in the news was a survey of the top 10 complaints that Taiwanese have in regard to their living circumstances.
The No. 1 complaint? The high cost of housing. This is all the more a problem for a young couple wanting to buy their first home.
As Ma works deals that make Taiwan increasingly dependent on China, the benefits remain obscure. The few rich will get richer, certainly, but which political party has the most wealth?
As for the average person or the poor, well, they will only get poorer.
So what is the very best that Taiwanese can hope for under Ma?
They can hope that their new Chinese landlords will be nice and not charge them too much rent.
Jerome Keating is a writer based in Taipei.
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