Most US academics, experts and government officials hope that the government’s China policy will bring stable development to the Taiwan Strait. There is, however, another view. Well-known neo-conservatives and Taiwan experts Robert Sutter and Shelley Rigger, who were Senator John McCain’s national security strategists during the presidential election, have expressed some unease, a reflection of the difficulties Taiwan will experience in striking a balance between the US and China.
The cross-strait relationship is experiencing its most rapid and dramatic improvement in 60 years. Cross-strait political, economic, military and psychological imbalances are increasing. The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) may try to restrict or block these changes, but it will be hard put to change the overall situation. Beijing is using the platforms for communication between the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT), cross-strait talks and cross-strait forums to widen its contacts with Taiwan. In Taiwan, however, China policy is developing along two increasingly divergent political viewpoints.
Taiwan required Beijing’s nod of approval to be invited to the World Health Assembly. The CCP has showed goodwill toward the KMT following the KMT’s acceptance of the “1992 consensus,” the moniker “Chinese Taipei” and dealing with issues on a case by case basis, but there are no guarantees it will extend the same treatment to a DPP-led government. With Beijing’s and Taipei’s opaque handling of key decisions, the rationale is that the results count, not the means.
Growing political, economic, military and psychological imbalances in cross-strait relations are causing a series of challenges to US policymaking. The general view in the US is that the Taiwanese government is relaxing political tension with China, but that the new policy is not risk-free. The question is whether the US government can respond to these unprecedented developments in cross-strait relations, or if it will have to single out a Chinese-Taiwanese economic cooperation framework agreement and passively say that it must not violate US interests in Taiwan.
In addition to relaxing the cross-strait economic and political relationship, Beijing must also eliminate any possibility of a US role in the establishment of a peace agreement and a cross-strait mutual trust mechanism on marine affairs. Rigger said one opinion in the US was that if Taiwan’s only concerns were economic and political exchanges with China and it reduced its military capabilities, the weapons systems the US has provided Taiwan over the years could pass to the People’s Liberation Army. Sutter and Rigger want the US to create a new policy, or at least to conduct a policy review and develop a response plan.
Former American Institute in Taiwan director Richard Bush says that China’s growing strength is making it increasingly complicated for the US and Taiwan to maintain their joint strategic view. What Bush does not say is that one result of China’s increasing strength and Beijing’s increasing ability to direct cross-strait relations is that US influence over the situation is diminishing.
The administration of former US president Bill Clinton could not get a good grasp of confidential cross-strait exchanges, just as the current US administration has problems getting a clear understanding of the ongoing cross-strait talks.
The US and Taiwan are ignoring the expanding cross-strait imbalance as they compete to improve relations with China and come up with ways to respond to new challenges to the relationship between Taiwan, the US and China.
Lin Cheng-yi is a research fellow at the Institute of European and American Studies at Academia Sinica.
TRANSLATED BY PERRY SVENSSON
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