Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) presidential candidate Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) defeated the Democratic Progressive Party's (DPP) Frank Hsieh (謝長廷) by more than 2.2 million votes in the March 22 election. This was a major setback for the DPP and could be a major blow to Taiwan's self-awareness movement. But does this mean that the localization movement will be demoralized?
This is hard to determine in the short term and needs close monitoring. It will also depend on how the localization movement is perceived from an East Asian and a global perspective.
The second transfer of power must be analyzed from two angles: democracy and localization.
Looking at the nation's political development from the perspective of global history, Taiwanese can be proud of the nation's democratic achievements.
First, through liberalization and regular elections, the nation has evolved in the past 20 years from an authoritarian state to bring about transfers of power.
Second, like other democratic states, Taiwanese fought long and hard for freedom. From the anti-colonial movement during the Japanese occupation through the post-war 228 Incident and White Terror era, the previous generations made many sacrifices for the nation's democratization. Taiwan's process of change began in the mid-1980s, when democracy activists Deng Nan-jung (鄭南榕) and Chan I-hua (詹益樺) gave their lives to fight for the freedom of expression and independence. Compared to many other countries, however, Taiwan has paid a relatively low price for its democracy.
Third, Taiwanese society has a diverse ethnic composition, with most of the population consisting of Han Chinese immigrants. Taiwan is a fine example of a predominantly ethnic Chinese country to democratize. In this respect, Taiwan is far ahead of China, and this is a good foundation for self-confidence as the nation is about to open up to China.
Will these democratic achievements be rolled back now that the KMT has regained control over massive political resources? I believe this will not happen. The reason for my optimism is that regular elections have become a systemic tool for transferring power. Democracy will not simply decline because the old authoritarian party has regrouped and returned to power.
However, KMT-style corruption that lined private pockets with public money through construction projects and wheeling and dealing had been perfected long before the transfer of power to the DPP. One example is enough: When People First Party Chairman James Soong (宋楚瑜) was provincial governor of Taiwan, large sums were spent on useless and ugly public construction projects. With the KMT back in power, will there be more wasteful and corrupt development projects that ruin the environment? On this point I am not optimistic.
Many factions, blue-leaning businesses and unemployed politicians have been "starving" for eight years. One can only imagine how they are gathering around the table, itching to get their hands on their share of the feast. Will Ma be able to control these factions and businesses? His ability has not yet been tested. Ma's government will have to prove through real action and achievements that the KMT is not the authoritarian party it once was.
Although Taiwan is a new democracy, its election system is stable and secure. The most important task in the coming years will be to protect the foundations of the democratic system. It still needs the checks and balances provided by an opposition party, and citizens to watch it and closely supervise it. We should not forget that more than 40 percent of the ballots were cast for Hsieh. It would be adding insult to injury for DPP supporters if the party collapses instead of engaging in reform and self-criticism.
Returning to the issue of local identity, Ma also advocates identification with Taiwan, but his ideas and past record are very different from those who have long cultivated the idea of localization. May 20 will soon be upon us. We should pay close attention to several issues.
First, will the characters dazhong zhizheng be put back up on the gates of Liberty Square?
Second, will localized textbooks be revised? Many lawmakers in the KMT-dominated legislature are of the same ilk as the four who stormed into Hsieh's campaign headquarters just before the election, and if they demand that dazhong zhizheng be restored or textbooks be changed, these issues will likely be brought to the legislative floor soon.
Third, the core of Ma's political vision is to deregulate economic relations with China. How will the Ma administration react if Beijing insists that Taiwan accept the "one China" principle as a precondition for allowing direct flights and more Chinese tourists to visit Taiwan?
These three issues will be the touchstone for determining if the KMT will harm localization now that the party is back in power. This is the first important test to determining what kind of national leader Ma will be since these difficult issues can easily re-ignite the identity conflict between pan-green and pan-blue camps. Being in office is not like swimming or jogging, nor is it like a walk in the countryside. Ma's first round will be far from easy.
Wu Jieh-min is an associate professor at the Institute of Sociology and the Center for Contemporary China of National Tsinghua University.
Translated by Anna Stiggelbout
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