The expected, but still surprising decision by Cuban President Fidel Castro to step down after nearly 50 years in power could launch a new era with a broad range of options for the communist country. The magnitude of possible changes could become at least partially apparent as early as tomorrow, when the National Assembly picks Castro's successor as head of state.
The legislature's 614 members who were elected in January -- and who include Fidel Castro -- are to hold their first session tomorrow, choosing the 31 members of the Council of State whose president is the Cuban head of state and head of government.
Castro, 81, who gave up power to his brother, Raul, in July 2006 to recover from severe health problems, said in a message on Tuesday that he will neither "aspire to" nor "accept" the top positions. All eyes are now on possible successors. But who are they? Speculation is rife, but the list of likely candidates is not long.
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Analysts point above all to Raul Castro and Vice President Carlos Lage. After these favorites, they mention National Assembly Speaker Ricardo Alarcon and young Foreign Minister Felipe Perez Roque. Raul Castro, 76, is the top candidate among both experts and Cubans on the street. Cuba's defense minister for almost half-a-century, he is considered Fidel Castro's "natural heir," as the older brother once called Raul.
He has already been the acting leader of the government for the year-and-a-half that Fidel Castro has been in recovery, and observers say his designation would be little more than the institutionalization of an existing situation. During his interim leadership, Raul Castro anticipated reform. He spoke of the need for "structural changes," directly confronted problem areas, like housing and transport, and even admitted there were an "excess of prohibitions and legal measures" on the communist island.
This discourse caused great expectations among Cubans, who might interpret more change in the leadership as altering this course. But people point to Raul Castro's advanced age as a point against him: He is set to turn 77 this year and is part of the "historic generation" of Cuban revolutionaries. They also cite his reluctance to be a public figure, as well as his own comments about the need to let "new generations" through. Raul Castro is defense minister in a country where the Army has great clout and also runs some of Cuba's main companies. So far, Fidel's younger brother has managed to juggle his positions as interim leader and minister, but many wonder whether he could keep doing that over time.
Next in line is Lage, 56, a pediatrician by training. In his favor, some point to the fact that he is identified with both Fidel and Raul Castro. His presence within the country and as Cuba's international representative has not changed since the president "temporarily" gave up power in July 2006. Lage's designation could be interpreted as a guarantee of economic changes, since he is considered responsible for the calculated economic reforms that made possible a liberalization of the dollar, free peasant markets and foreign tourism to get over the severe, post-Soviet economic crisis in the 1990s.
Brian Latell, a former CIA analyst and author of the book After Fidel, was among the first to put forward Lage's candidacy earlier this year. In an article in the Wall Street Journal, Latell argued that legitimizing the succession in the long-term is one of Raul Castro's top priorities, and noted that Lage is widely considered to favor economic reform, as Raul apparently does.
Alarcon's -- and to a lesser degree Perez Roque's -- great domestic and international experience have placed their names on the list. However, despite their media exposure in the past year-and-a-half, they are hardly considered the favorites. Beyond the top echelon of the Cuban state, Fidel Castro's decision not to seek the presidency is set to provoke a reorganization of the whole leadership, as vice presidents and others move within the Council of State. This is great change in a country that has seen little in recent decades, and where more than 70 percent of the people have not known any leader but Fidel Castro. His message on Tuesday did not cause a commotion on the island and many inhabitants noted they had "expected" such a move.
On Wednesday, Cuban media reflected expressions of loyalty from Cubans to their long-time leader. And observers agree that Fidel Castro will stay at the head of the Communist Party, where he will be able to continue to pull the strings of the country.
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