Sun, Feb 17, 2008 page8

• EDITORIAL: Putting politics aside for the best

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  While who wins the upcoming presidential election carries a lot of weight for Taiwan's future, what happens with the UN referendums will also affect the nation's path.

  If a referendum passes, it will have an enormous impact on Taiwanese foreign relations: China will threaten to implement the "Anti-Secession" Law, flex its military muscles and apply pressure on the US, Japan and the EU to express opposition. If neither referendum passes, the international community might interpret it as a sign that the Taiwanese public has little desire -- or is downright opposed -- to joining or returning to the UN. Consequently, the doors of the UN could be closed for good, bringing a calamity for Taiwan, a scenario of total defeat.

  Of course, the best scenario for the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) would be for the UN bid to pass, and this would allow Taiwan to apply for UN membership under the name by which it is most commonly known.

  But if the Chinese Nationalist Party's (KMT) opposition to the referendums remains unchanged, it will likely launch a boycott of both referendums -- and both UN plebiscites could fail. If this happens, Taiwan's worst nightmare will come true.

  Another scenario would be if both referendums pass, since it would express the public's hope and determination to join the UN. The question of whether to join as a new member or return to the UN could be determined at a later date.

  But as long as one of the referendums passes, regardless of the loss or gain this would represent for the parties as they campaign for the presidential election, the door to the UN would at least be kept open.

  Combining the referendums with the presidential election is probably not the cure-all that the DPP seems to believe it is, nor the wild beast imagined by the KMT.

  If any party boycotts the referendums, they could suffer the same fate as the 2004 arms purchase referendum and the two referendums held in tandem with the legislative elections last month.

  To prevent the referendums from being manipulated by parties for their campaigns, the DPP has decided to support the KMT's referendum to return to the UN, in hopes of preventing the worst case scenario. DPP presidential candidate Frank Hsieh has even suggested that President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) hold cross-party negotiations to reach a compromise over the referendums.

  As president, Chen has the legal authority to suggest a defensive referendum, but the situation is delicate. The political impact from all sides would be great and this is not necessarily a desirable solution.

  If the DPP and KMT have the nation's interests in mind, they should encourage voters to vote for both UN referendums. That will neutralize their effect on the election and create a win-win solution. If the KMT refuses to support the DPP referendum, then a solution to minimize damage should be adopted. The parties could come to a consensus and put forward a third choice, a replacement referendum, through the legislature. But time is short and this possibility is waning.
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