While who wins the upcoming presidential election carries a lot of weight for Taiwan's future, what happens with the UN referendums will also affect the nation's path.
If a referendum passes, it will have an enormous impact on Taiwanese foreign relations: China will threaten to implement the "Anti-Secession" Law, flex its military muscles and apply pressure on the US, Japan and the EU to express opposition. If neither referendum passes, the international community might interpret it as a sign that the Taiwanese public has little desire -- or is downright opposed -- to joining or returning to the UN. Consequently, the doors of the UN could be closed for good, bringing a calamity for Taiwan, a scenario of total defeat.
Of course, the best scenario for the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) would be for the UN bid to pass, and this would allow Taiwan to apply for UN membership under the name by which it is most commonly known.
But if the Chinese Nationalist Party's (KMT) opposition to the referendums remains unchanged, it will likely launch a boycott of both referendums -- and both UN plebiscites could fail. If this happens, Taiwan's worst nightmare will come true.
Another scenario would be if both referendums pass, since it would express the public's hope and determination to join the UN. The question of whether to join as a new member or return to the UN could be determined at a later date.
But as long as one of the referendums passes, regardless of the loss or gain this would represent for the parties as they campaign for the presidential election, the door to the UN would at least be kept open.
Combining the referendums with the presidential election is probably not the cure-all that the DPP seems to believe it is, nor the wild beast imagined by the KMT.
If any party boycotts the referendums, they could suffer the same fate as the 2004 arms purchase referendum and the two referendums held in tandem with the legislative elections last month.
To prevent the referendums from being manipulated by parties for their campaigns, the DPP has decided to support the KMT's referendum to return to the UN, in hopes of preventing the worst case scenario. DPP presidential candidate Frank Hsieh has even suggested that President Chen Shui-bian (
As president, Chen has the legal authority to suggest a defensive referendum, but the situation is delicate. The political impact from all sides would be great and this is not necessarily a desirable solution.
If the DPP and KMT have the nation's interests in mind, they should encourage voters to vote for both UN referendums. That will neutralize their effect on the election and create a win-win solution. If the KMT refuses to support the DPP referendum, then a solution to minimize damage should be adopted. The parties could come to a consensus and put forward a third choice, a replacement referendum, through the legislature. But time is short and this possibility is waning.
The EU’s biggest banks have spent years quietly creating a new way to pay that could finally allow customers to ditch their Visa Inc and Mastercard Inc cards — the latest sign that the region is looking to dislodge two of the most valuable financial firms on the planet. Wero, as the project is known, is now rolling out across much of western Europe. Backed by 16 major banks and payment processors including BNP Paribas SA, Deutsche Bank AG and Worldline SA, the platform would eventually allow a German customer to instantly settle up with, say, a hotel in France
On August 6, Ukraine crossed its northeastern border and invaded the Russian region of Kursk. After spending more than two years seeking to oust Russian forces from its own territory, Kiev turned the tables on Moscow. Vladimir Putin seemed thrown off guard. In a televised meeting about the incursion, Putin came across as patently not in control of events. The reasons for the Ukrainian offensive remain unclear. It could be an attempt to wear away at the morale of both Russia’s military and its populace, and to boost morale in Ukraine; to undermine popular and elite confidence in Putin’s rule; to
A traffic accident in Taichung — a city bus on Sept. 22 hit two Tunghai University students on a pedestrian crossing, killing one and injuring the other — has once again brought up the issue of Taiwan being a “living hell for pedestrians” and large vehicle safety to public attention. A deadly traffic accident in Taichung on Dec. 27, 2022, when a city bus hit a foreign national, his Taiwanese wife and their one-year-old son in a stroller on a pedestrian crossing, killing the wife and son, had shocked the public, leading to discussions and traffic law amendments. However, just after the
The international community was shocked when Israel was accused of launching an attack on Lebanon by rigging pagers to explode. Most media reports in Taiwan focused on whether the pagers were produced locally, arousing public concern. However, Taiwanese should also look at the matter from a security and national defense perspective. Lebanon has eschewed technology, partly because of concerns that countries would penetrate its telecommunications networks to steal confidential information or launch cyberattacks. It has largely abandoned smartphones and modern telecommunications systems, replacing them with older and relatively basic communications equipment. However, the incident shows that using older technology alone cannot
RSS