Tomorrow Russian President Vladimir Putin turns 55. In the eighth-floor flat of a Moscow tower block a group of students are discussing how to congratulate him.
On the sofa are three teenage girls wearing pink T-shirts with the logo "I want Putin" (on the back are the words "For a third term"). The flat has been converted into a sort of Putin shrine. The former KGB agent looks down sternly from white, blue and red Russian flags; one of the boys, Ilya, is sporting a T-shirt with the slogan "If not him, who else?"
"I love our president," says Yulia Minazhetdinova, 18, a student from Moscow. "Girls like him as a man. I would love to have a husband just like him."
Igor Boyko, 19, founder of the Putin Fan Club, reels off a list of Putin's achievements: stabilizing Russia's economy and pensions, bringing peace to the Caucasus and restoring Russia's prestige in the eyes of the world.
Like many pro-Kremlin youth groups, the Putin Fan Club has only one aim: to persuade Putin to stay in power. Increasingly, it looks as if the club will get what it wants.
On Monday last week Putin gave his strongest hint yet that he intends to carry on as Russia's de facto leader after his second term as president expires. Speaking to a congress of United Russia, the main pro-presidential party, Putin revealed he was contemplating becoming prime minister.
This was a "realistic idea," he said, as long as United Russia won December's parliamentary elections, and someone "decent, competent and effective" took over his old job next year.
Under Russia's Constitution, Putin is barred from serving more than two consecutive terms. But there is nothing to stop him from running the country as prime minister.
Following his announcement, two main scenarios unfolded: Putin installs a puppet president in March next year, runs the country as prime minister, and returns as president in 2012, just in time to host Russia's winter Olympics.
Alternatively, following a landslide victory in December's polls, Putin uses United Russia's two-thirds majority in the Duma to amend Russia's Constitution and turn Russia into a prime minister-led parliamentary republic. This has the advantage of appearing to bring Russia closer to the Western democratic model.
Either way, he stays in power -- a prospect that has stunned and appalled Russia's small liberal opposition.
RETAINING INFLUENCE
Nobody had expected Putin to retire gracefully from politics -- he had hinted that he intended to retain influence. Almost two-thirds of Russians want him to stay on as president.
But few people had believed that he intended to carry on ruling indefinitely.
"When I first heard the news I thought it was a joke," said Tanya Lokshina of the human rights group Demos. "This means that the presidential elections, from which so many people expected so much, have become completely meaningless. For Russia, this means more of the negative trends we have seen in recent years: rising authoritarianism and setbacks on human rights and democracy."
She said Putin could realistically expect to stay in power for another 20 to 30 years.
"This development means he is staying for a long time. The reason he wants to be PM is quite logical. He wants to remain in control, and he doesn't trust anyone around him," she said.
"Up until now Russia seemed a typical managed democracy, with all the democratic institutions in place, but being manipulated in different ways. What is happening now is reminiscent of Soviet times. The kind of power that Putin is likely to acquire as prime minister is similar to the power of the Communist Party in the Soviet Union," she said.
Garry Kasparov -- the opposition leader who is to stand in next year's election -- said Putin's move was a "leap back of 20 years, to the Soviet past."
"We are witnessing the next public act of the Kremlin's unfolding play. In accordance with this scenario, all political life will be totally dominated by United Russia," Kasparov predicted.
In truth, it's a model that most Russians are content with. For many, opposition parties are unattractive. The very word "liberal" is tainted by association with the chaos of the 1990s when price controls were lifted, "oligarchs" seized chunks of the economy and the life savings of millions of people disappeared overnight.
Putin has staked his definitions of democracy on appealing notions of prosperity: the ability to own a car and an apartment and to go abroad on holiday.
At the United Russia congress this week, party members pleaded with him to maintain stability and growth by staying in charge of the country.
"Vladimir Vladimirovich, you are lucky," said Mikhail Terentyev, a Paralympic ski champion. "And while you are the president, luck accompanies Russia."
WIPED OUT
Yet critics insist that many of the benefits of perestroika -- the democratic blossoming under Mikhail Gorbachev -- have been wiped out. Putin has changed the system so that constituencies can no longer elect members of parliament directly, meaning that the handful of opposition members of parliament in the Duma will lose their seats. On top of this, Russia's Kremlin-loyal courts have liquidated the few small political parties that criticize Putin.
Last week Gorbachev -- these days a marginal figure in Russian politics -- issued a rare rebuke to the president after his own social democratic party was wound up.
"Laws have been passed which restrict the possibilities of free democratic choice and political competition. This significantly narrows the space for public politics," he said.
But the problem for Russia's weak and factional opposition is that Putin still enjoys genuine political support.
Rising wages and a stable rouble are concrete improvements that have won backing for the Kremlin. New data collected by the independent Levada Center polling agency indicates that 61 percent of people in Moscow are in favor of Putin becoming prime minister after he leaves the presidency -- a high figure considering the capital is traditionally more oppositionist than the provinces.
Center director Lev Gudkov said a traditional tendency toward paternalism meant Russians recognized enduring problems such as social inequality and corruption, but shifted the blame away from an all-powerful leader on whom all their hopes rested.
"Putin is a `Teflon' president. Nothing sticks to him," Gudkov said. "All successes and positive tendencies are ascribed to him and all failures are loaded on to the government, bureaucrats or `enemies' of Russia," he said.
How that dynamic will work if Putin becomes prime minister, or head of the government, is a moot point. Some analysts say his team have still not decided on a full strategy for maintaining a grip on power.
And Putin likes to give surprises.
"The president is capable of making a move that is so unexpected and unpredictable, as if picking up the chessboard and striking his opponents in the teeth," Smisl (Meaning) magazine said this week.
OTHER MODELS
While Putin may become prime minister and install a weak president, there are other potential models. A strong candidate, such as his faithful friend Sergei Ivanov, the hawkish former defense minister, could be eased into the presidency and the pair could run the country together. Alternatively, Putin could take a leading role in a state-owned company while continuing to pull the strings.
In any event, Putin -- with his precious popularity and natural feel for the electorate -- is likely to remain a key figure. His stance since January, when he accused the US of unilateralism during a speech in Munich, has reaped particular approval.
"Putin's new aggressive tone on foreign relations is welcomed very highly by the population," Gudkov said. "It's taken as a sign of the strengthening of Russia's role and authority on the world stage. Russians respect power."
What may be dawning on Western countries is the uncomfortable truth that a slide toward authoritarianism is not incompatible with economic growth and prosperity.
The rift between Moscow and European capitals has become so wide that little outcome is expected at the next EU-Russia summit in Lisbon at the end of this month.
"It's already clear there won't be any `returnables,'" one Western diplomat said.
However, Europe, so dependent on Russian oil and gas supplies, seems unwilling to take its criticism too far.
The members of Putin's fan club, meanwhile, are not bothered by Russia's allegedly undemocratic trajectory -- or by the fact that critics of the president are banned from appearing on TV.
"I don't see any authoritarianism. Critics should be objective and not subjective," Boyko says, adding that non-governmental organizations critical of Russia's human rights record were funded by the CIA and unpatriotic wreckers such as Boris Berezovsky.
"Putin is clever, charismatic, strong-willed and brave. Brave because he has defeated Russia's many enemies," he said.
It is not clear whether the fan club will get to deliver their homemade birthday cake to Putin personally. Igor concedes they will probably eat it themselves.
Outside it is dusk and Moscow's long, warm summer has given way to rain.
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