Absent in the string of recent comments by Washington officials regarding the proposed referendum on joining the UN using the name "Taiwan" are the negative ramifications that would arise if the public voted against the UN bid.
Officials assume that Taiwanese understand that a colossal failure would weaken the nation's position as factually sovereign and would probably hasten the advent of the day of Taiwan's absorption by China, a nightmare to the Taiwanese and the forerunner of the US' retreat from the Western Pacific.
By arguing that even passing approval for the referendum would pose serious danger these US officials hope to convince the Taiwanese people to scrap the referendum altogether.
The administration of US President George W. Bush, however, will be remiss if it doesn't modify its position once the referendum is officially placed on the ballot. Washington still has a stake in the outcome of the referendum.
Ostensibly, Washington opposed holding such a referendum lest its passage set the stage for Taiwan's declaration of independence, which would in turn destabilize the region on account of Beijing's much-ballyhooed threat. That thought process nevertheless is following Beijing-scripted logic, and is not necessarily grounded in reality.
Beijing's premise on Taiwan has been that a small contingent of "separatists" headed by President Chen Shui-bian (
Waving banners of "liberating Taiwanese compatriots from the evil few" might be able to whet a spotty appetite for war among a Chinese populace for years preoccupied with economic interests. Support for Beijing's military actions, on the other hand, would have a hard time gaining traction if a majority of Taiwanese registered their opposition to Beijing's unilateral "liberation" with their votes in the referendum.
There is also no reason to believe that members of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), "though once known for their zeal," could be immune to the pacifying effect of capitalism. If rhetorical bluffing with passionate resolve for a dubious cause -- including such memorable one-time theatrics as threatening a global-scale nuclear war with the prospect of sacrificing millions of lives -- fails to frighten enough people and thus doesn't go very far, the CCP will inevitably find a way to fold its hand when called to step from what it can afford to what it can't.
As China prospers by garnering economic clout without political modernization, the CCP might already have found that a large-scale economic reversal would pose a far greater threat to its grip on the Chinese people than a sovereign Taiwan. A stiffened Taiwanese spine could therefore become the last proverbial straw to break the camel's back on Beijing's Taiwan dream.
A common thread runs through these propositions. They all underscore the value of referendums as a defense system and votes as defensive weapons, the kind Taiwan possesses but China under the CCP never will.
It then follows that Taiwanese would be foolhardy not to take advantage of the full might of referendums. After all, confirmation of public backing through referendum for any endeavor Taiwan undertakes for the sake of survival could only improve Taiwan's safety. It takes a defeatist mindset to argue for forsaking the UN referendum lest its passage make further vital undertakings such as continued nation-building more likely and hence endanger Taiwan.
A recent Zogby public opinion poll, commissioned by the Chen administration to gauge the US public's sentiment on Taiwan and the UN referendum, had significant results. Specifically, while 55 percent of respondents are currently in favor of UN membership for Taiwan, 70 percent would support the UN bid if a referendum on UN membership were passed by the Taiwanese people.
The size of the latter figure is impressive, and it shows that the more Taiwan demonstrates its determination, the more outside encouragement it would receive.
The prosperity of China's international commerce hinges, to a great extent, on worldwide goodwill, especially from the West. Rising support for Taiwan from the Western public would therefore constitute a form of deterrence to Beijing's aggression against Taiwan.
Besides, if Taiwan raises its international profile in conjunction with its campaign to gain entrance into the UN, Taiwanese confidence in the survival of Taiwan's democracy would be enhanced. That in turn would bolster Taiwan's desire to arm itself, a boon to US strategic concern.
Once the referendum is formally put on the ballot, it should be in the US' interest for the Bush administration to clearly signal to the Taiwanese public that Washington would at least quietly root for the passage of the referendum.
Huang Jei-hsuan
California
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