A report by the National Defense Management School's Graduate School of Information Management and Policy says that if the People's Liberation Army (PLA) used M-type missiles to attack Taiwanese airports, the only thing China would achieve is serious damage to one runway at the Taichung Airport, and that would "almost exhaust all the M-9 missiles." And this does not take into account Taiwan's anti-missile system and its capacity to repair runways. This is a very optimistic take on the matter and one could interpret the findings quite differently.
Western researchers have assessed that if China attacked Taiwan, targets for the first wave of missiles, air raids and electronic attacks would be in order: Governmental and military control centers, early warning systems, communication facilities, ground-based air defense systems, air force bases and missile launch bases.
According to the report, the PLA has also already planned the order of attack for a large invasion of Taiwan. First would be control systems, including mission control centers, communication nodes, and radar and intelligence systems; followed by traffic and transportation systems, including railways, airports and harbors; then support systems, including power plants, oil refineries and oil depots, all kinds of food producing factories, and logistic centers; fourth, personnel, including cities; and finally exposed troops.
A Taiwanese assessment says the sequence of a PLA attack on Taiwan would be in order: Governmental and military centers, including the Presidential Office and the Cabinet; then important military nodes, including the Ministry of National Defense, the General Staff Headquarters, the headquarters of various army units, and the Hengshan (衡山) command post; third, radar stations and important communication centers; next, air force bases, especially the deployment bases of Taiwan's new-generation fighter aircraft.
Ground-based air defense systems, including those of Tien Kung and Patriot missiles would be next, followed by important military harbors, including those in Tsoying (左營), Penghu, Keelung and Suao (蘇澳); seventh, oil refineries and oil depots, including the refining factories in Kaohsiung, Talin (
It is clear that in all estimates -- from the US, China and Taiwan -- the first objective of a Chinese invasion would be Taiwan's governmental and military centers. This means first that in an attack, China would seek to "decapitate" Taiwan. This is in line with the main idea behind military operations. As soon as Taiwan lost its command centers, its airplanes, boats and missiles would all be lone fighters in battle.
It is easy to understand why military airfields would be the fourth or fifth in the order of attack in case of an invasion. Although airports are included in the first wave of attacks, they are not an important target. Taiwanese should really not congratulate themselves just because the PLA's missiles are said to be unlikely to cause serious damage to runways.
The US has already pointed out many times that although Taiwan's self-defense on the whole is above standard, the strength of the airports is sub-par. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian Affairs Thomas Christensen, a former Princeton University professor, clearly warned Taiwan in a recent report that it must urgently strengthen its airports. By no means should the army lower its guard because of this report.
Cheng Ta-chen is an independent defense analyst.
Translated by Anna Stiggelbout
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