Two weeks after the G8 leaders met in Germany, an impression remains that they wrought a political miracle in Heiligendamm. Three things were supposedly saved at the G8 summit: world climate, Africa and relations between Russia and the US.
It seemed that a world government had met on the shores of the Baltic Sea. In the face of European unity, US President George W. Bush was transformed from a notorious sinner against the world's climate to a born-again climate protector. Some bold observers, indeed, regarded this change of heart by Bush as a clear indication that Europe had assumed a new role in world politics. But no real miracles occurred; instead, the G8 will need a miracle not to lose its relevance.
In the US, however, where people are normally more religious than in old Europe, belief in the Heiligendamm miracle is less widespread. Indeed, Americans were rather indifferent to the summit. The reason for this is not only the public arrest of the tabloid newspapers' current favorite, the heiress Paris Hilton, but also the fact that the only expectations Americans now have of Bush is for him to finish his term. Because of Bush's perceived impotence, Americans believed that no real decisions could be made at this summit.
What, then, was decided at the summit? To begin with, the G8 countries decided to "seriously examine" cutting in half worldwide emissions by 2050. This is a very long time in politics. This compromise was supposedly hammered out in tough negotiations. But translated into everyday speech, "examine" and even "seriously examine" mean nothing other than "postpone."
For what happened is that the US president, both before the summit and quite publicly at it, successfully spurned quantifiable goals and refused to make any concrete commitments. So in the end all that was left was a choice between doing nothing and deciding to postpone a decision in a "serious" way. This is how international conferences sometimes work.
Thus, sadly, Europe's contribution to the conversion of the US president on climate change was very limited. After all, whatever awakening Bush has had has more to do with changes in the US political landscape, where climate change is now a real issue. Indeed, the positions of former US vice president Al Gore and California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger have contributed more to Bush's awakening than all the efforts of the European leaders combined.
In the cold light of day, the US government's agreement to negotiate a successor treaty to the Kyoto Protocol within a UN framework is not a sign of real progress either. This is so because members of both parties in the US Congress still repeat the mantra: Nothing without China! This position will not change after the next presidential election.
The problem becomes clear when you compare per capita emissions in the US and China rather than absolute numbers. China may be the second-largest emitter of greenhouse gases in absolute terms (behind the US), but its per capita emissions are those of an emerging economy that is still far behind. The fact that the US, the world's largest economy and emitter of greenhouse gases -- in absolute numbers and in per capita terms -- is taking cover behind the largest emerging country with regard to climate policy does not bode well for the future.
Climate change is not the only place where the G8 summit now seems less than miraculous. In the run-up to the summit, Germany announced that it would increase its foreign aid for Africa by US$940 million. This was the only concrete step, one deserving of praise. But otherwise the G8 only reaffirmed the decision they had taken two years ago in Gleneagles, Scotland. So in real terms Africa has received only more grandiose rhetoric. Unfortunately, there is nothing to indicate that restating empty promises will lead to any change.
The German presidency of this year's G8 cannot be held responsible for this state of affairs. Under the prevailing circumstances, it is hard to see how more could have been achieved, given the political conditions back home of the summit's participants.
So the summit's outcome was far from a miracle. What really mattered in Heiligendamm were not the decisions taken by any putative world government but the fact that the days of the G8 now seem to be numbered.
Politically and economically, China and India are more important today than some European G8 members. Indeed, Europeans should understand that this viewpoint is spreading around the world, particularly on the other side of the Atlantic.
Russian President Vladimir Putin's behavior at the summit clearly demonstrated what he thinks about the Europeans, which is: not too much. While the Europeans dreamed of assuming a mediator's role between the US and Russia, the Russian president was determined to resolve the questions of the US anti-ballistic missile shield and Kosovo bilaterally with the US.
As in the old Cold War days, Russia would love to sit once again at the negotiating table alone with the US. The Europeans, with their disunity and weakness, are perceived as unnecessary, even bothersome. If the Europeans continue to cultivate their weakness and disunity, it may well happen that Europe will become irrelevant across the international agenda.
This year's G8 is over. Next December things will start getting serious. Environment ministers from around the world will meet at the next UN climate conference in Bali. Only then we will know with certainty if a miracle did occur at Heiligendamm or if the summit was, indeed, yet another "political miracle play."
Joschka Fischer was German foreign minister and vice chancellor from 1998 to 2005. He is a visiting professor at Princeton University's Woodrow Wilson School.
Copyright: Project Syndicate/Institute of Human Sciences
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