Zimbabwe's opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) has declared that the bloody assault on its leadership which prompted an international outcry heralds "the final stage of the final push" to remove President Robert Mugabe from power. One of the party's leaders has even gone so far as to warn of "rebellion, war."
Zimbabweans have been here before, and been disappointed. So the coming weeks will be a crucial test of whether the MDC is finally able to capitalize on the unexpected transformation of its image from weak to heroic and mobilize popular resistance to Mugabe's 27-year rule.
Five years ago, the MDC declared that the voters were about to turf out Mugabe. The opposition then watched helplessly as the ruling Zanu-PF stole the election.
In the following days the MDC's leader, Morgan Tsvangirai, backed away from confrontation with the government just as Zanu-PF was most vulnerable and ordinary Zimbabweans were still mobilized. He said he did not want to see bloodshed. Since then the MDC has been on the retreat as it failed to find a strategy to confront Zanu-PF.
Tsvangirai launched a "final push" and "winter of social discontent" but they failed to get a sceptical population on to the streets. The collapse in confidence in the MDC showed as many opposition supporters did not bother to vote in parliamentary elections and the MDC split over Tsvangirai's leadership.
Now his party is again presented with an opportunity after the assault on the MDC leaders laid bare the brutalities of Mugabe's rule and prompted Washington to lead international condemnation of Zimbabwe's president.
The MDC said it would seize the moment. Arthur Mutambara, a leader of the faction that broke away from Tsvangirai two years ago, said the party was putting aside divisions to rally to the cause.
"We have our differences but we will manage them," he said. "We are in the final stages of the final push. We are going to do it by democratic means, by being arrested, beaten, but we are going to do it ... We are talking about rebellion, war."
But at the weekend, Tsvangirai was still talking about foreign intervention as key to forcing Mugabe from power. Asked shortly before he was beaten up why he did not offer more forceful leadership, Tsvangirai essentially said it was for the people to lead and him to follow.
But ordinary Zimbabweans have not shown a taste for confrontation with the government even as they have endured a collapsing economy and food shortages.
David Coltart, an MDC member of parliament who supports the Mutambara faction, said he remains doubtful that his party could mobilize large-scale protests.
"For all the publicity of the past week, the fact remains that the opposition hasn't been able to mobilize tens of thousands of people which is partly to do with fear, partly to do with divisions in the opposition and partly to do with a shocking lack of information for ordinary people about what is going on," he said. "This is a very weak population; weak economically, unhealthy because of AIDS, and a population that is starving."
The one MDC strategy that may yet pay off is the quiet negotiation between its two factions and rival wings of Zanu-PF.
Tsvangirai has tacitly acknowledged that the best way to encourage change is through a power-sharing agreement with those in the ruling party who realize that a coalition government would also ensure a future for Zanu-PF.
But Mugabe's Zanu-PF critics acknowledge that an opposition able to mobilize popular discontent would strengthen their hand in trying to get the president to finally relinquish power.
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