This year, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change published a report emphasizing that scientists can confirm with 90 percent certainty that climate change is caused by the rapid increase in greenhouse gases in the air created since we began using large quantities of fossil fuels following the Industrial Revolution.
For example, the concentration of carbon dioxide increased from 2.85 parts per million (ppm) to about 3.8ppm over the past 200 years. After running 40 computer simulations of the possible scenarios for development of the world economy, scientists now predict that by the end of this century, surface temperatures on the Earth will rise by between two and four degrees Celsius.
As a result, melting icebergs and glaciers will cause sea levels to rise by several meters, flooding low-lying areas and increasing rainfall and storms in other areas. The ecological changes will pose serious health problems to both humans and animals. New deserts will form, sparking mass human migrations and the extinction of animal species.
Amid calls around the world for a reduction in the use of fossil fuels, former US vice president Al Gore became a star when he won an Oscar this year for a documentary warning of the dangers of global warming that he had dedicated the last several years to making. Even US President George W. Bush has traveled to Brazil to sign a plan to develop renewable resources with Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. Brazil has become famous around the world for successfully developing the use of ethanol fuels over the past 30 years.
The EU is also taking steps, setting itself the goal of generating 20 percent of its electricity from non-fossil fuels and running 10 percent of its vehicles on alternative fuels by 2020.
Governments and citizens in all countries are fervently discussing strategies to cope with global warming. The importance of the issue can be seen in the attitudes of people in the US. Next year the US will hold a presidential election, but global warming is garnering just as much attention.
Meanwhile, Taiwan is one of the most energy-poor countries in the world. We rely on imports for 98 percent of our energy, almost all of which comes from fossil fuels. Yet high-level officials as well as ordinary people seem not to be overly concerned about global warming and energy issues. I wonder how many of our leaders have considered in detail a policy to deal with the issue. I don't believe pressing them to take action is too much to ask.
Admittedly, several government agencies have discussed global warming policies for years and many have set policies. But because certain top officials are concerned about the perceived negative impact on economic development, or because they are thinking about winning elections, we very seldom see those policies implemented.
Every year we spend hundreds of billions of NT dollars to import oil, so it's difficult to understand why some people think that conserving energy, improving energy efficiency and reducing the use of fossil fuels will retard economic development.
I propose the following:
First, we should set a concrete and proactive timetable for carbon emission reductions and promote activities to encourage people to reduce their carbon emissions. We should also publicize and educate people on how they and corporations can conserve energy.
Second, we should cultivate renewable energy and promote industries that produce energy-efficient household electronics and commercial appliances.
Third, we should establish a carbon tax and a new energy tax system. We should use price controls to reduce the use of fossil energy and use tax breaks and subsidies to encourage people to use renewable energy. We must reach a goal of having 10 percent of our energy come from renewable sources within five years.
Fourth, we must transform our industries. The government and business sector should work together to move away from energy-intensive industries and into the service, cultural and knowledge industries.
Fifth, we should complete construction of the Fourth Nuclear Power Plant as soon as possible. Nuclear power does not involve the creation of greenhouse gases and is a dependable major source of energy. We must complete construction as fast as work quality standards and operational safety allow.
Most importantly, we must petition the government to speedily set a new energy policy and put it into effect.
Tsong Tien-tzou is a research fellow in the Institute of Physics at Academia Sinica.
Translated by Marc Langer
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