The US' policy flip-flop on Taiwan continues with American Institute in Taiwan Director Stephen Young's recent push on two fronts -- Taiwan's arms purchase and direct cross-strait links. Legislative approval of the former would have a positive bearing on US security interests, but the latter could result in Taipei's sharp tilt toward Beijing and away from Washington -- a move that could have far-reaching implications on US-Japanese concerns.
The only common thread in the two seemingly incongruent elements is Young's duty as an employee of the US State Department charged with advancing US commerce.
Although Taiwan's arms purchase would profit US weapons suppliers, the benefits of direct cross-strait links for US multinationals would be fleeting at best.
Closer Beijing-Taipei relations could speed up the marginalization of Taiwan, and Tai-wan's intellectual and monetary contributions as an independent and democratic nation could quickly vanish.
To head off the dreaded isolation, President Chen Shui-bian's (
There are talks in the US that the split in last month's municipal elections might boost the chances of the arms package being approved. That is nothing more than wishful thinking given the pan blue-dominated legislature's avowed goal of blocking the arms bill, and allowing the bill to pass would run counter to their objective of never taking up arms against their brethren in China.
And it didn't stop there: The legislature gave its thumbs-down to all long-stalled projects barely 10 days after the polls.
As a concession to the ruling party, the pan-blue coalition grudgingly let the arms proposal take a small step forward in the waning days of last year, but showed no sign that its "delay and obstruct" tactics would permanently end.
Despite the concession, the failure to pass a full arms budget before the end of last year was no less a slap in the face for Washington, which had conveyed its message through Young's talk earlier.
Washington could punish Taiwan by downgrading US-Taiwan military cooperation as it had threatened. That, however, would eventually have the net effect of pushing Taiwan into Beijing's orbit and leaving a huge gap in the US-Western Pacific defense chain with their attendant impact on US national security.
While being a loss-loss proposition for both Taiwan and the US, this would scarcely be a chastisement to the pan blues who have been yearning for exactly such an outcome. Deploying such a stick would be like throwing the baby out with the bathwater while the culprit who dirtied the water cheers on.
It's even more ludicrous considering that there exists a surefire "carrot" -- a US-Taiwan free-trade agreement. The FTA could be the most effective enticement for breaking up the pan-blue hold on the arms bill. Taiwan's big businesses -- the KMT's traditional patrons -- would likely succumb if they they were presented with the choice of the US inking an FTA contingent on the passage of the arms bill.
The fact remains that the current arms package is too important to be left to the fickle discretion of a legislative majority that appears bent on manipulating it as a political tool, and stymieing it as a way to please Beijing.
For the US, this could culminate in another sterling moment when a well-orchestrated trade policy plays a vital role in bolstering national security.
Huang Jei-hsuan
California
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