Sun, Dec 03, 2006 page8

• The DPP outlook in mayoral races

  • By Shih Cheng-feng 施正鋒
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  The official campaign period for Saturday's mayoral elections in Kaohsiung and Taipei began on Friday, but voters still seem cold to the occasion, perhaps because of the scandals surrounding President Chen Shui-bian's (陳水扁) use of the Presidential Office's "state affairs fund" and Taipei Mayor Ma Ying-jeou's (馬英九) use of his special mayoral allowance fund.

  Last September in Kaohsiung, former acting Kaohsiung mayor Chen Chi-mai (陳其邁), who had long prepared for this month's mayoral election, had to step down due to the involvement of his father, former Presidential Office deputy secretary-general Chen Che-nan (陳哲男), in the corruption scandal surrounding the Kaohsiung Rapid Transit Corp (KRTC). Former Council of Labor Affairs chairwoman Chen Chu (陳菊) who had also just stepped down due to the scandal, seized the opportunity to obtain the Democratic Progressive Party's (DPP) nomination.

  Chen Chu comes from the DPP's New Tide faction, but she is considered an energetic person, so after Chen Chi-mai became her campaign manager a few months ago, differences of opinion with the party's factions subsided and former Kaohsiung mayor Frank Hsieh's (謝長廷) camp ceased its opposition.

  The biggest factor was the rise of the movement against the president in the south, which stimulated a sense of crisis among deep-green supporters. Originally, they were not interested in the mayoral election because of the DPP's poor performance, but they had no choice but to put aside their anger over the president's "four noes, one without" policy and cross-strait integration rhetoric. This saved the president and helped Chen Chu's campaign.

  After news of the Presidential Office "state affairs fund" scandal broke, many DPP members drew a line between themselves and the president, or even withdrew from the party. This has put Chen Chu into a difficult position, as she does not know whether she should continue to work for the New Tide faction or the for the DPP.

  Still, her cautious attitude towards the opening of cross-strait links shows that she feels the need to differentiate her policy stance from that of her Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) rival Huang Jun-ying (黃俊英). As long as she remains firm and commits fewer mistakes, she has a good chance of winning the election. As for policies, they can be discussed after the election.

  Recently, the controversy surrounding Ma's special mayoral allowance fund has boosted the DPP's morale, as well as Chen Chu's support ratings. But in the Kaohsiung race, her Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU) rival Lo Chih-ming (羅志明) still insists on running despite the green camp's call for him to withdraw. Lo's performance in the mayoral candidate debate was particularly good, bringing huge pressure on Chen Chu.

  At this moment, apart from attracting more votes for herself and the DPP's councilor candidates, she also has to pray that Lo will only attract votes from the blue camp.

  In Taipei, the voter structure is relatively favorable to the blue camp, and the green camp does not have a chance if the blue camp does not split. People First Party (PFP) Chairman James Soong's (宋楚瑜) run for the mayoral seat, however, has given Hsieh a chance. Since the PFP's legislators are returning to the KMT one after another, Soong himself must come out to fight this time lest the KMT keeps his party from the legislature in next year's legislative elections when the number of legislative seats will be halved and the new single-member district, two-vote system will be implemented. Little wonder he is going all out to win.

  The KMT's own mayoral candidate, Hau Lung-bin (郝龍斌), seems to be a simple and honest man. Otherwise, the DPP government would not have invited him to head the Environmental Protection Administration (EPA) in 2001. However, a person's strength can also be his or her weakness. Hau looks plain and inactive in his commercials -- he will hardly be able to attract moderate voters without any specific political stance. The Lafayette scandal involving his father Hau Pei-tsun (郝柏村) seems to have had little effect on his campaign.

  Compared with Premier Su Tseng-chang (蘇貞昌) who seems restless and eager to make a move these days, Hsieh has moved from southern to northern Taiwan where he is trying to make a breakthrough while not forgetting to mock the president. But I am afraid that green camp supporters still have his "one-China constitution" and "one country, two cities" proposals fresh in their minds. Can they forget these pro-China remarks? He still needs to work on this.

  Moreover, Hsieh has merely demonstrated his quick wits and eloquence in the campaign so far, but people seem to have forgotten that he was in fact the premier earlier this year. This might not be a bad thing come election day.

  Of all the parties, the TSU is in the most awkward position. Originally, the confrontation between the ruling and opposition camps should have given the TSU the chance to play the role of a crucial, balancing party.

  Unfortunately, the polarization of the blue-green confrontation has pushed voters back to traditional foes. Judging from the constitutional amendment cutting the legislature in half, the DPP would rather treat the TSU as another party faction than see it grow further. The party remains polite to the TSU on the surface, but no actual integration will ever take place.

  Besides, although their competition is not so intense at the grassroots level, the TSU's candidates do not know how to distinguish themselves from their DPP rivals without being interpreted as fishing in troubled waters. Due to this dilemma, it is the TSU that now finds itself in troubled waters.

  Shih Cheng-feng is a professor in the Department of Public Administration at Tamkang University.

  Translated by Eddy Chang
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